Thursday 11 August 2016

No F-35 For Singapore ... For Now .. And What's The Deal With Guam?




F-35B of the 501st Marine Fighter Attack Training Squadron ( VMFAT-501 ),
 MCAS Beaufort, South Carolina.
Photo taken on 19th Mar 2015 Lockheed Martin  



State Dinner : What's On The Menu?



At the invitation of the President of the United States Barack Obama, Prime Minister of the Republic of Singapore Lee Hsien Loong made an official visit to the US to celebrate 50 years of diplomatic relations and to further enhance the bilateral strategic partnership that the two countries had enjoyed so far. The state visit had taken place from 31 July to 5th August 2016. The two leaders had many things to discuss, from boosting trade and commerce links to strengthening people-to-people ties through exchange scholarships and implementation of trusted traveler programs, addressing regional and global challenges including climate change, global terrorism, freedom of navigation, and last but not least, enhancing security and defense cooperation.



Singapore PM Lee Hsien Loong and President Obama at the White House
 2nd Aug 2016. Photo : US Embassy



A state dinner at the White House was also hosted in Singapore's honor on 2nd Aug 2016, the 11th so far by the Obama Administration in his eight years in office. Singapore was the fifth Asian country to receive this honor, after India, China, Japan and South Korea. During the black tie event attended by 200 prominent guests including Vice President Joe Biden, Secretary of State John Kerry and Secretary of Defense Ash Carter. PM Lee returned the honor by unveiling a Singapore cultivated orchid hybrid named after the US President and the First Lady, Dendrobium Barack and Michelle Obama, to mark the 50th anniversary of bilateral relations. It is a cross between a hybrid native to Hawaii where Mr. Obama was born, the D. Pink Lips, and a Singapore hybrid known as D. Sunplaza Park.


The Dendrobium Barack and Michelle Obama
( D. Pink Lips x D. Sun Plaza )
 is a robust and free flowering orchid hybrid named in the honor of
the POTUS and the First Lady celebrating 50 years of
bilateral relations between the US and Singapore.
Photo : MCI via Straits Times


With bilateral ties at an all time high, as they should be, and knowing that Singapore has been interested in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter for the longest time yet is always in no hurry to make the final decision, the question that many will ask is, was the F-35 on the State Dinner menu? Could a possible F-35 foreign military sale ( FMS ) to Singapore be Obama's last hurrah in his lame duck period?

As usual, some background information to provide the reader with the right perspective is always appropriate.



State Dinner Menu 2nd Aug 2016 :
Maryland Blue Crab, American Wagyu Beef, Local Tomato Salad
and Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter?!
Original Image Singapore Embassy in Washington DC





US and Singapore : 50 Years of Diplomatic Relations And More




Fifty one years ago, on 9th Aug 1965, the tiny South East Asian nation of Singapore was born in anguish, having been unceremoniously kicked out of the Federation of Malaysia like an unwanted child. Before that, it had been a British crown colony since 1819, until it achieved self-governance in 1959 and subsequently joined the Malaysian Federation in 1963.

As a small island nation without natural resources and at that time surrounded by potentially hostile neighbours, Singapore needed friends, and fast. Friends whom it could learn from, trade with, garner political support and who could lend a helping hand when it was needed. It was a matter of survival.

And among the first few countries to recognize Singapore as a sovereign country after it declared its independence from the Federation of Malaysia was the good old United States of America under the leadership of President Lyndon B. Johnson. Official recognition came on 11th Aug 1965 in a letter from Secretary of State Dean Rusk to Singaporean Foreign Minister Sinnathamby Rajaratnam, essentially the day after independence, taking into consideration that the US lies across the International Date Line on the other side of the Pacific.

The establishment of diplomatic relations and the American embassy came the following year, on 4th April 1966, with Richard H Donald as Chargé d’Affaires ad interim. The rest that followed, was half a century of ever deepening friendship and thrust, of mutual understanding, respect and admiration.


US - Singapore Diplomatic Relations 50th Anniversary. Source : US Embassy


Informal relations between the United States and Singapore had began even earlier, way back in the 19th century when US merchants engaged in the China trade began to visit the port on their way to and from China. As Singapore became one of the most important ports in the region, US-Singaporean interaction increased and the first American representative to Singapore, Joseph Balestier ( 1788 - 1858 ) was appointed on 4th July 1836 when the US established a consulate. He was a merchant and plantation owner whose wife Maria was the daughter of Paul Revere, silversmith, industrialist and Patriot in the American Revolution of the midnight ride fame. Their legacy endures in Singapore today, with an entire neighborhood, a high school and road named after Balestier. A beautiful church bell made in the foundry of her father was donated by Maria Balestier to the St Andrew's Church once signaled the evening curfew now rests in the Singapore History Gallery of the National Museum. It is the only Revere bell outside the United States.


The Revere Bell at the National Museum of Singapore.
Inscription reads : Revere, Boston 1843.
Presented to St Andrew's Church, Singapore,
by Mrs Maria Revere Balestier of Boston,
United States of America. Photo : Wikipedia

 
Today, the US is the biggest source of foreign direct investment in Singapore. Over 3700 US companies are located in Singapore and a growing number of Singapore companies are establishing themselves in the US. The US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement, the first such US agreement in Asia and now in its twelve year is a reference agreement that has shaped subsequent bilateral and multilateral FTAs in the region, including the high profile Trans-Pacific Partnership ( TPP ). Students from both countries study at each other's schools from elementary to post-graduate levels and beyond. The Singapore Armed Forces stations and trains approximately 1000 of its personnel annually in the US. Similarly, the US regularly deploys aircrafts and ships on a rotational basis to Singapore, contributing to the stability of the Asian Pacific region.  

 

The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Program



The US$379 billion F-35 Joint Strike Fighter ( JSF ) program is without doubt the world's most expensive weapons program. It aims to produce a 5th generation multirole stealth fighter in three variants to replace a whole host of legacy fighters and attack aircrafts in the United States Air Force ( USAF ), United States Navy ( USN ), the United States Marine Corps ( USMC ) and some of its closest allies. The program's international partners includes the UK, Italy, the Netherlands, Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway and Turkey. Israel and Singapore are Security Cooperative Participants.

Apart from the United States, the F-35 to date has orders from eleven countries, including eight international partners and three foreign military sales to Israel, Japan and South Korea.




JSF Logo. Lockheed Martin.



The JSF program was highly controversial due to the multiple setbacks it encountered during its development, long delays and huge cost overruns. Early adopters saw the unit cost increase from an initial estimate of US$50 million per aircraft to more than $150 million, causing some to cut procurement numbers or postpone their purchase, which in turn leads to more upward pressure for the unit price. It is therefore the interest of the US as well as the F-35's vendor, Lockheed Martin, to secure as many orders as possible in order to bring down the unit cost of the volume production F-35 to a targeted $85 million by 2019.

This can be achieved by enticing the early adopters to exercise their options for additional aircrafts, place follow-on orders ( like Israel ), and by convincing those potential customers who are still undecided to finally take the plunge ( like Singapore ). The best way to do it is to demonstrate that the F-35 works as or better than advertised and ironically, a drastic price cut itself!

So did Obama attempt to get Singapore to commit itself to a squadron of F-35s? I'm sure he did. I would if I were Obama. After all, the Americans really have nothing to lose by asking and a whole lot to gain if Singapore had said yes.

Listed below are some of the reasons why the time might now be mostly right for Singapore to finally own a couple of these stealth fighters.



The Only Western Stealth Fighter In Production



With the production of the F-22 Raptor permanently shutdown, the reality is that the F-35 currently is the only stealth fighter in production and available for export in the Western World. The F-22 was never cleared for export to any country, ever. So, unless you are a partner in Russia's PAK-FA stealth fighter program like India or are researching your own design like Japan and its Mitsubishi X-2 technological demonstrator, or plan to wait for China's FC-31 to be made available for export, you really have no other stealthy options apart from the A, B and C variants of the F-35. Like they say, simple as ABC.

How to tell them apart physically? The F-35A conventional take-off and landing ( CTOL ) version for the USAF has a bulge over the left upper fuselage from its internal 25mm Gatling gun and a boom receptacle for aerial refueling at its dorsal area, two unique features which the other versions lack. The F-35B short take-off and vertical landing ( STOVL ) version for the USMC meanwhile has a bulge behind the canopy to house the huge lift fan which also has distinctive panel lines. The F-35C catapult assisted take-off barrier arrested recovery ( CATOBAR ) version for the USN has a wingspan 8 feet longer than the other versions, a tailhook assembly and a double wheeled forward landing gear.


From left to right the C, B and A variants of the F-35 JSF at Edwards AFB,
California. Photo taken on 28th Feb 2014 Lockheed Martin




Security Cooperative Participant Forever? 



On 16th Mar 2004 Singapore signed a Letter of Offer and Acceptance ( LOA ) to become a Security Cooperative Participant ( SCP ) of the System Development and Demonstration Phase ( SDD ) of the JSF Program, the only Asian country to do so. It followed the signing of a Letter of Intent in Feb 2003 which laid down the broad principles for the SCP arrangement. And that seems like a looooong time ago, at least by aircraft standards. For $10 million, being a SCP allows a country to be able to have early access to proprietary information, including flight simulators. It allows early evaluation of the ability of the F-35 to meet the country's long term operational requirements for a stealth fighter. The SCP member country will have insights into the JSF’s development progress and be able to conduct studies for integration of its requirements into the JSF. It will also have the privilege of requesting for early purchase of the F-35 with deliveries from 2012 onwards. Of course those dates slipped badly and many partner countries are just beginning to receive their first F-35 this year. Now one wouldn't spend that kind of money unless seriously interested in the aircraft in question, right? The only other SCP of the JSF Program, Israel, had already put in an initial order for 33 F-35I Adir and possibly a follow-on order of another 17. If it is good enough for the Israeli Defense Force ( IDF ), it is good enough for the Singapore Armed Forces ( SAF ) ... well not exactly, but the two countries do have a long history of military cooperation and share many similar platforms and systems. That said, endorsement by the IDF does carry weight, in fact a lot of weight. The SAF had more than twelve years to do due diligence as a SCP, and SDD Phase which started in 2001 and originally projected to last for 10 years is already in its final stages and scheduled to end in 2017. Time to make a decision.



Roll out of the Israeli Air Force's first F-35I Adir ( CTOL ) at LM's
Fort Worth facilities 22nd Jun 2016. In the cockpit is Israel's
Minister for Defense Avigdor Liberman who could not stop grinning!
 Photo : Lockheed Martin



Maintaining Qualitative Lead



Singapore being a land scarce and resource poor country without any strategic depth has always looked to a doctrine of maintaining a qualitative edge against its regional peers to overcome these inherent disadvantages. Over the past few decades, the RSAF has seen its traditional lead over its rivals shrink dramatically with the introduction of Russian Su-27 / Su-30 Flanker family multirole fighters in the region. Both Indonesia and Malaysia have been operating these lethal fighters for several years. In addition, Indonesia is in advance negotiation with Russia to acquire eight Su-35 Super Flankers. Further away, both Vietnam and China have large Flanker fleets, with China already committed to buying 24 Su-35 with the first 4 deliveries expected this year. The RSAF's F-16C/D and F-15SG will find it challenging to match the superior performance of these advance Flankers. Hence, the impending introduction of the all new Su-35 as well as the continued threats from existing Flanker types might just be the catalyst to induce Singapore to finally stop mulling about the F-35 and actually buy it.




The Sukhoi Su-35S Super Flanker of the Russian Air Force.
Credit on Photo.




The Su-35 could carry a total of twelve air-to-air missiles.
The aft centerline pylon is empty in this photo. Credit on Image.



New Capability : Short Take-Off and Vertical Landing



Whoever said that the F-35 acquisition had to be a replacement for an obsolete aircraft type? Of course ageing aircrafts have to be replaced in a timely manner so as to avoid any possible capability gaps from occurring during the transition. Right now the 27 F-5S and 9 F5Ts already have their days numbered. But how about getting a squadron of the short take-off and vertical landing ( STOVL ) F-35B as a new capability for the RSAF? The F-35B is currently the only modern fighter aircraft in production that has STOVL capabilities.

The proliferation of advance long range saturation rocket artillery systems like the Avibras ASTROS II within the regional armies of Malaysia and now Indonesia meant that there could always be a threat that Singapore's airbases and runways could be targeted from outside its boundaries during outbreaks of hostilities. Having even a small number of STOVL capable fighters dispersed in various well concealed locations will ensure at least some aerial defense and retaliatory options while runway operations are temporarily disrupted.

In addition, should the Navy eventually replace its four Endurance-class Landing Platform Dock with the Joint Multi-Mission Vessel ( JMMS ) which is essentially a helicopter carrier, it would not be inconceivable to build them large enough to accommodate the F-35B, although it could be at the expense of a reduced shore projection capability. That would provide serious close air support to any amphibious landing force and top cover for the naval task force.



F-35B performing a vertical landing during Developmental Test Phase II
 onboard USS Wasp on 15th Aug 2013. Photo : Lockheed Martin

 
 
F-35B performing a short take-off during Developmental Test Phase II
 onboard USS Wasp on 15th Aug 2013. Photo : Lockheed Martin



The F-35 Program Has Matured



As a whole, the F-35 Program has made significant progress especially in the past few years. Although still far from complete, many milestones have been achieved. But the ultimate milestone would be the attainment of the Initial Operational Capability ( IOC ). The F-35B of the USMC was the first to declare operational on 31st Jul 2015. Slightly more than a week ago on 2nd Aug 2016, the USAF also declared that the F-35A is combat ready. We are now left with the Navy's F-35C which will be projected to achieve IOC sometime between Aug 2018 and Feb 2019.

Since nobody except the US intends to buy the F-35C, as far as export customers are concerned, the F-35 can be considered combat ready.

Singapore's Minister for Defense Dr Ng Eng Hen had expressed satisfaction that the JSF Program is progressing well when he visited the F-35 Academic Training Center at Luke Air Force Base and received a briefing on the F-35's capabilities from the 61st Fighter Squadron in Dec 2015. Over the years, he had witnessed the hangars at the air base gradually fill up with F-35 fighters. He could also see the F-35 chalking up on sortie numbers and flight hours. From Dec 2006 to May 2016, the F-35 fleet has a combined total of nearly 60000 flight hours. By Oct 2015, 162 F-35s had been delivered to the Department of Defense ( DOD ), inclusive of the 20 SDD test aircrafts. Lockheed Martin's Fort Worth facility is now churning out Low Rate Initial Production ( LRIP ) Lot 8 aircrafts. There will be at least another three lots of LRIP till Lot 11. The more mature a program is, the less risk it would present to the countries who are adopting it. So the JSF program has more or less matured, though eight years later than initially projected.



Four F-35B and two F-35C ( rear ) at Naval Air Station Patuxent River,
 Maryland. Photo taken on 18th Feb 2012 Lockheed Martin.



The Unit Cost Is Dropping



After years of runaway escalation, the trend had finally reversed and unit cost of all three variants of the F-35 continues to drop a little year by year as Lockheed Martin has been able to reduce the number of labour hours required to produce an F-35 from 153000 hours per aircraft in 2011 down to 50000 hours by mid-2015, all thanks to efficiency gains and process improvements ( see photo of the EMAS below ). As a result, the unit cost of the cheapest and most commonly procured F-35A variant could fall to $80 to $85 million for an F-35 ordered in 2018 and delivered in 2020. At this price, the F-35A could even be cheaper than modernized versions of some high end legacy fighters. For comparison, Lockheed Martin's own F-16 V Viper is estimated to cost $60 million per copy, while Boeing's F-15SE Silent Eagle which has some stealth features like radar absorbent coating and conformal weapon bays can cost more than $120 million. Singapore's initial tranche of 12 F-15SG, ordered in Dec 2005, was estimated to cost about $1 billion. So the unit cost could be about $83 million or more, and that was more than a decade ago. A full-rate production Eurofighter Typhoon costs $119 million, the Rafale-B $98 million, the F/A-18E Super Hornet Block II $78 million and even the SAAB JAS-39C Gripen ( no AESA radar ) cost $69 million.

For FY2016 though, the unit cost of F-35A is $109.88 million, the F-35B at $121.33 million and the F-35C at $117.83 million, already on par with the F-15SE.



The Netherland's F-35A being lifted from the automated
Electronic Mate And Assembly System or EMAS.
Photo taken 9th Apr 2015 Lockheed Martin




The RSAF's M-346 Trainers Are F-35-Proofed



The twelve Alenia Aermacchi M-346 Master lead-in to fighter trainers of the RSAF's 150 Squadron acquired in 2012 are specifically designed for helping trainee pilots transit from advance jet trainers to operational conversion with 5th generation jets like the F-35. They can simulate the flight characteristics of the F-35 and can even be used as companion trainers to reduce the need for pilots to fly the F-35 to maintain their combat readiness. They are F-35 and future-proofed. Their earlier acquisition fits into the grand scheme of possible F-35 buys down the road.



Singapore's Continued Interest In The F-35 Welcomed



In the joint statement released by the governments of the United States and Singapore after the meeting at the Oval Office between President Obama and PM Lee, it was mentioned that " President Obama welcomed Singapore’s continued interest in the F-35 aircraft. The two leaders expressed support to explore new training opportunities for the Singapore Armed Forces in Guam, with an eye toward a potential long-term training detachment for the Republic of Singapore Air Force. "

Since the late eighties, long term training detachments of the RSAF to the United States had always been associated with a Foreign Military Sale of some major platform, like the F-16 and the Peace Carvin II detachment to Luke Air Force Base ( AFB ), the F-15SG and the Peace Carvin V detachment to Mountain Home AFB, the CH-47D and the Peace Prairie detachment to Redmond Taylor Army Heliport ( AHP ), and the AH-64D and the Peace Vanguard detachment to Silverbell AHP. So is Singapore about to make another major arms acquisition?

Perhaps but it might not be what you are thinking about. There are currently three major training centers for the F-35, Eglin AFB in Florida where the Integrated Training Center trains F-35 pilots and maintainers, Luke AFB in Arizona and MCAS Beaufort in South Carolina. All foreign ( and many US ) pilots of the F-35A are currently being trained at Luke AFB where 6 squadrons ( 144 aircrafts ) of F-35As comprising a mix of USAF and pooled FMS assets will eventually be available. F-35B pilots are trained at Marine Corps Air Station ( MCAS ) Beaufort, home of Marine Fighter Attack Training Squadron 501 ( VMFAT-501 ). This is also where UK and Italian F-35B pilots would receive their training.

Depending on the variant selected, a F-35A buy would probably mean another Peace detachment to Luke AFB while a F-35B buy would necessitate a detachment to MCAS Beaufort. There ain't no F-35 simulators on Guam!

Therefore, we know for sure that the F-35 was part of the agenda of that meeting, otherwise it would not have been referred to in the joint statement. Obama must have asked Singapore to consider buying the F-35, again. Unfortunately, despite the favourable factors for the F-35, the answer was no .... for now. Hence, the statement about continued interest.

Indeed, a news report by Bloomberg two days ago said that in Dec 2014 Singapore had submitted a letter of request to the US formally seeking information on the purchase of the F-35. It then followed up in early 2015 with indications that it wanted the STOVL F-35B variant, the most complicated model. The initial acquisition was intended to be for four aircrafts by 2022 with options for another 8 more. Earlier this year, the US even gave the approval for Singapore to integrate its own radio and datalink into the aircraft should it be purchased. However, for reasons yet not known, Singapore had informed the US in June this year that the purchase was now on hold.

You can see here what IHS Jane's had to say in this video published on 8th Aug 2016 on the F-35 and Singapore. The hovering / vertical landing F-35B seen at MCAS Beaufort has a RAF roundel and belongs to the UK, a first tier partner in the JSF Program. Some nice clips of the F-15SG and F-16C are included. The narration department has much to be desired, though.






Where In The World Is Guam?






Guam is a US Territory in the Northwestern Pacific.




Guam is the biggest island and the southernmost of the Marianas which also includes
Saipan and Tinian, all famous battlegrounds in the Pacific War.
The B-29 that dropped the atomic bomb on Hiroshima launched from Tinian.




Guam is an American territory located in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. It is the largest and the southernmost of the Marianas Islands. Its strategic value lies in the fact that it is a US owned territory midway between Hawaii and Asia and therefore an important forward deployment, transit and logistic hub for the USAF and the USN, playing a key role in Obama's Rebalance to Asia. It has two major military bases - Naval Base Guam and Andersen Air Force Base, now managed together as Joint Region Marianas.



Joint Region Marianas Logo from its Twitter site.






Naval Base Guam at Apra Harbor, Santa Rita is the home of Submarine Squadron 15 made up of several Los Angeles-class nuclear attack submarines. It is also the home port of many Pacific Fleet units and US Coast Guard units.

Andersen AFB on the other hand, is one of four bomber forward operating locations of the USAF, providing support to rotating forward deployed strategic bombers like the Boeing B-52H. Proximity to the naval bombing range at Farallon de Medinilla Island 296km north of Andersen and the vastness of the surrounding air space makes Guam an ideal training place for these huge aircrafts.

Beginning 2019, Guam will be receiving some 5000 marines and 1300 of their family members relocated from Okinawa, where the Okinawans had found them burdensome. The build up will continue to 2026. Only a third will be permanently based there while the rest will train there on a rotational and staggered basis. Many will be housed around the vicinity of Andersen AFB where some of the training ranges are also located.



B-52G of the 60th Bombardment Sqn, 43rd Strategic Wing dropping 500lb Mk82
high-drag bombs at the Farallon de Medinilla Island Bombing Range during
Ex Harvest Coconut 3rd Dec 1984. Photo USAF via Wikipedia

 
 
B-2 Spirit from Whiteman AFB deploy to Andersen AFB during
Ex Polar Lightning 12th Mar 2009. USAF Photo.

 
 
 
F/A-18D takes off at Andersen AFB with B-52H in the background
during Ex Valiant Shield 14th Sep 2014. USN Photo.



Aerial view of Apra Harbor where US Naval Base Guam is located
5th Mar 2016. Several warships can be seen berthed in the foreground. USN Photo. 



So What's The Deal With Guam?



The proposed long term training detachment of the RSAF to Guam probably has nothing to do with FMS this time. Its not the F-35 for sure. Its not the P-8 as the detachment should have gone to Naval Air Station Jacksonville, Florida, otherwise. I believe the motive for the detachment to Guam is far more mundane. It is most likely a relocation of the Peace Carvin II F-16 detachment at Luke AFB to a venue closer to Singapore.




The tail flash of a RSAF F-16 of the 425th Fighter Squadron marking the
20th anniversary of the Peace Carvin II detachment to Luke AFB,
28th Oct 2013. USAF Photo.


The Peace Carvin II detachment to Luke AFB was Singapore's first permanent training detachment to the US. It started in 1993 and marked its 20th anniversary in 2013. It is also Singapore's longest running foreign military training detachment. The contract for the program had been renewed several times and unless further renewed will expire in 2018.

With the F-16 gradually becoming obsolete and Luke AFB slowly transiting to become the premier F-35A training base just like it did with the F-16 35 years ago, it might not make a lot of sen$e to extend the Peace Carvin II program further. Even if Singapore had requested for an extension, the US may not necessary grant it this time as they focus on ramping up F-35A numbers and training at Luke AFB.



The Peace Carvin II Patch : Saguaro ( AZ ) and Blackwidow ( 425th ).




Bringing home the F-16 squadron doesn't sound appealing as Singapore lacks the air space for these fast jets to train and maneuver. Relocating the squadron to a USAF base somewhere else would be a better idea, since the F-16 pilots will continue to benefit from the training and exposure, especially with regards to large scale multi-national exercises like Ex Valiant Shield.

And when you look at the map, the nearest US air base to Singapore is Andersen AFB in Guam. Basing the F-16 in Guam has advantages apart from the vastness of the airspace and the proximity of the naval bombing range. The logistics will be easier and cheaper to handle and the aircrafts could be recalled back to Singapore much faster should the need ever arise. Andersen AFB is 4717km from Paya Lebar Air Base in Singapore which is just slightly more than the maximum ferry range of a Block 50/52 F-16 with external drop tanks. This distance is still far but much less formidable compared with the distance to the US.

We often forget how BIG the Pacific Ocean is and how far it is from America to Asia. From Andersen AFB to Hickham AFB in Hawaii is 6096km. Hickham to Luke AFB is another 4663km. The great circle distance from Paya Lebar Air Base to Luke AFB is 14606km. A previous recall exercise saw the F-16s hopping from one AFB to another across the Pacific, requiring six aerial refueling and six full days to complete the journey.


Geographical location of Guam and Singapore.


The 250 RSAF personnel and their family members of the training detachment hopefully will not be too much of a burden to the increasingly congested Guam Island as the Marines move in from Okinawa. But one thing is for sure. It will be a mini boost to the local economy for years to come, just like what the SAF brought to the Australian township of Rockhampton with its training at Shoalwater Bay, Queensland. Luke's loss will be Guam's gain.



B-1, B-52 and probably KC-135 at Andersen AFB 28th Feb 2006




C-5 Galaxy, B-2 Spirit and B-1 Lancer at Andersen AFB. 7th Jun 2006




Left to right Mitsubishi F-2 ( I think ), F-15, F-16 Aggressors, F-16 and probably EA-6B
plus E-2C, C-130 ( top ) and KC-135 ( bottom ) at Andersen AFB 18th Feb 2011




Hordes of B-52H at Andersen AFB 19th Jan 2016




Sun, Sand and Surf : Andersen AFB and Yigo Town. 7th Jun 2016




Sorry No Lame Duck F-35



It has been said by Mr Lee Hsien Loong during his state dinner toast remarks that much could be achieved even by lame duck presidents during their final months in office, like Bill Clinton and the US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement, signed after a midnight round of golf with then Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong on a rainy night in Brunei during an APEC summit. For President Obama though, there will be no F-35 sale to Singapore for now to add to his legacy as the first black president of the United States. That honor will probably go to the next president, hopefully not Mr. Donald Duck who may be just lame from day one.

Indonesia and Malaysia would probably breathe sighs of relief knowing that Singapore had postponed the F-35 acquisition. But the delay will only be as long as needed. The restrain will go should more Flankers or advance air defense systems populate the region.  


 
 
POTUS Barack Obama giving a speech on 3rd Aug 2016. Photo : US Embassy 



President Obama and PM Lee on 4th Aug 2016, Obama's birthday.
Photo : US Embassy
































Monday 1 August 2016

Xian Y-20 : China's Indigenous Military Transport ... With Old Russian Engines?! 中国西飞 运-20 国产战略运输机扶摇万里得用进口俄制发动机?!


 
 
The Xian Y-20 Strategic Transport of the PLAAF.
Image shows prototype number 3.
Source : Chinese Internet




News of China's new strategic transport aircraft the Y-20 officially entering service with the People's liberation Army Air Force was splashed across various news media earlier last month. The Chinese are immensely proud of this indigenously designed and built aircraft, their largest and heaviest so far, as in terms of lift capacity, only Ukraine, Russia and America had previously constructed anything bigger. While basking in their self-congratulatory bliss, these air-heads often seize upon the chance to belittle the Japanese effort in their separate quest to build a long range medium transport, the Kawasaki C-2. But really, how great is this aircraft and is the Chinese national pride misdirected? Read on to find out more.


Chinese Aircraft Normenclature



Indigenously built Chinese aircraft generally have an official designation combining one ( sometimes two or more ) Chinese character(s) describing the function of the aircraft followed by a dash and a numerical figure. For example, in China bombers are known as Hong Zha Ji  ( 轰炸机 ). The Chinese character 轰 or 轰炸 means to bomb or the act of bombing and a bomber therefore will be assigned the 轰 designation, such as the Tu-16 derived 轰-6 or Hong-6 in its Anglicized form, which is then abbreviated to become the H-6.

Similarly, transport aircrafts are known as Yun Shu Ji  ( 运输机 ) and indigenously constructed transport aircrafts have designations like the 运-8 ( Yun-8, Y-8 ), or in our particular case, the 运-20 ( Yun-20, Y-20 ).

Helicopters are known as Zhi Sheng Ji ( 直升机 ), so they all have the 直 or Zhi designation, like the AS365 Dauphin derived Z-9.

Examples with two function indicating characters include the Shenyang Jian Hong-8 ( 歼轰-8 ), the JH-8 fighter bomber and the H-6 bomber derived HU-6 aerial tanker Hong You-6 ( 轰油-6 ). 油 means oil or fuel.

Imported aircrafts generally retain their original foreign designations, for instance, the Sukhoi Su-27 fighter is simply known as the 苏-27 which is phonetically Su-27 ( 苏 is pronounced Su in Chinese ).


The Xian Y-20



Xi what? Definitely not as famous as Airbus, Boeing or Sukhoi, the Y-20 is the product of the Xian Aircraft Industrial Corporation ( 西安飞机工业 Xian Fei Ji Gong Ye ) which is sometimes also known as the Xian Aircraft Company ( XAC ) based in China's north-western Shanxi Province ( 陕西省 ). It is frequently abbreviated as Xifei ( 西飞 ).

XAC was set up in 1958 and over the years had specialized in the development and production of medium and large aircrafts for China. Previous products included the Tupolev Tu-16 derived H-6 bomber, the Y-7 transport and the JH-7 fighter bomber.

Their most recent venture is the strategic transport the Yun-20 ( Y-20 ), incidentally also the biggest aircraft that China had developed so far. It is officially named the Kunpeng ( 鲲鹏 ), which is an ancient Chinese mythical creature of humongous proportions which can transform itself between the form of a fish or a bird. How big is big? Well legend had it that just the back of this bird alone is supposed to stretch for a few thousand Chinese li ( 1 li = 500 meters ) and the Kunpeng is figuratively able to fly ten thousand li in a day, meaning an unimaginable distance. The Chinese obviously had very high expectations for their new transport. For more on the Kunpeng mythology, see the footnote.

Unofficially, the Y-20 is called the Pangniu ( 胖妞 ) which means fat girl, due to the chubby appearance of its fuselage. A rather stupid nickname to have for a military aircraft, but seemingly very widely accepted, adopted and affectionately used in the Chinese mass media.



The Chubby Girl is not just fat. It is suffering from
Grade III Obesity. Source : Chinese Internet


No matter how you view it, this aircraft is just
pathologically fat. Source : Chinese Internet



Y-20 Technical Specfications




Type : Military Strategic Transport

Crew : 3 ( including 1 loadmaster )

Length : 47m

Wingspan : 45m

Height : 15m

Empty Weight : 100000kg

Maximum Take-off Weight : 220000kg

Payload : 66000kg

Cargo Hold : 20 x 4.5 x 4m

Engines : 4 x Soloviev D-30KP-2 Low Bypass Turbofans
                4 x WS-20 High Bypass Turbofans in the future

Maximum Speed : Mach 0.75 ( 891km/h or 495knots )

Maximum Altitude   : 13000m

Range       : 4500km with full load of 66tons
                   7800km with 40tons
                   in excess of 10000km transporting personnel   

Minimum Take Off Distance : 600 - 700m


Development History



As history had repeatedly shown us, it is logistics that frequently made the difference between winning and losing a war. In the past two decades or so, the Chinese Air Force, more accurately known as the People's Liberation Army Air Force ( PLAAF ), and it naval counterpart the People's Liberation Army Navy Air Force ( PLANAF ), had undergone rapid modernization and had transformed themselves from also ran organizations into some very capable fighting forces. However, their efforts were mainly concentrated in building up the quantity and quality of their frontline combat aircrafts and in doing so had somewhat neglected other critical but not so glamorous capabilities. These included tactical and strategic airlift, aerial refueling, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance ( ISR ), electronic warfare and other special mission capabilities.

For its tactical airlift needs, the Chinese had traditionally relied on license produced or reverse engineered imitation copies of Soviet transport aircrafts. Beginning from the Nanchang Y-5 which was a licensed copy of the Antonov An-2 in 1957, the Chinese went on to license build the Xian Y-7 which was derived from the An-24 and reverse engineered the An-26 without any license agreement to become the Xian Y-7H. Other examples included the Shaanxi Y-8 which was copied from the An-12. A modernized stretched version of the Y-8 was eventually fielded as the Y-9.



PLAAF Shaanxi Y-8 is a tactical transport copied
from the Antonov An-12. Wikipaedia



Until the recent debut of the Y-20, China never had the capability of producing a large transport, legally or illegally. For its strategic airlift needs, it had a fleet of some 17 Ilushin Il-76MD imported from Russia from the mid-nineties. It may sound like a lot but 17 heavy transport aircrafts for a country as big as China is never sufficient, not especially with China's ambition to become the regional dominant military power. By some estimates China would need up to 200 large military transport to support the activities of its armed forces. The USAF in contrast has about 223 Boeing C-17 Globemaster strategic transport.

Realizing this severe capability gap in military heavy lift, the Chinese had in Sep 2005 attempted to acquire from Russia 34 Il-76MD Candid transport and 4 Il-78KM Midas air-to-air refueling tanker respectively in a deal said to be worth USD1.045billion. The aircrafts were supposed to be constructed at the Tashkent Aviaplant in Uzbekistan, which from 1974 until very recently was the sole factory that had been producing all Il-76s. 90% of the components were to be imported from Russia. Delivery was supposed to commence in 2007 with the last aircraft handed over by 2012. However, the deal subsequently collapsed due to the Tashkent plant not being able to cope with the production volume. The solution suggested was to shift all production works back in Russia but it carried a price increase to USD1.5billion which the Chinese rejected. The Russians never admitted any wrong doing, insisting that it was a three way deal and that they had fulfilled their obligations, instead shifting the blame towards Tashkent. Unable ( unwillingly? ) to provide a refund to the Chinese for the broken deal after spending a large portion of the deposit upgrading new production lines in Russia, the Russians have instead supplied the Chinese with 55 of the D-30KP-2 jet engines that powered the Il-76 and another 10 refurbished ex-Russian / Ukrainian / Belarusian Il-76. ( see images below )

The concurrent requirement for a large platform for their airborne warning and control system then in development and the failure to procure the Il-76 prompted that the Chinese brass to make it an urgent priority to develop an indigenous transport which can then be adapted for other roles like aerial tanker and AWACS. It was under such circumstances that the Y-20 project was initiated.



Refurbishing used Il-76 for China in Jun 2015 Source : Ilyushin
 
 
 

Refurbishing used Il-76 for China in Jun 2015 Source : Ilyushin
 
 


Refurbishing used Il-76 for China in Jun 2015.
 The words Chinese Air Force can be seen. Source : Ilyushin



Timeline


As early as 1993, the Xian Aircraft Industrial Corporation had already conducted feasibility studies on large aircraft construction. It had also invested USD3billion on infrastructural upgrades.

By 1997, the company had made proposals to the Chinese military for a large transport.

In 2001, it incorporated the vision to produce a 200ton category large aircraft in the company's long term strategic plans and implemented measures to improve on manufacturing processes and techniques.

At around that time the need for a large body aircraft to serve as an AWACS platform meant that XAC was asked by the central government to come up with a blueprint for a large transport in short order. It would be based on the Il-76 but had to be technically superior to the Il-76MD ( extended range version ). Technical assistance was sought from an old ally, the Antonov State Company of Ukraine.

By 2006, the development of large-bodied aircrafts as a national policy had been officially included in China's Medium And Long Term Technological Development Plan and the 11th Five Year Development Plan.

It received in-principle approval at the Executive Meeting of the State Council of the People's Republic of China in Feb 2007.

The large military transport project was officially launched on 20th Jun 2007 and was assigned the code name Project 072.

Over the next few years, XAC reportedly concentrated on improving its knowledge base and capabilities in manufacturing and handling composite materials, fabrication of large aircraft parts and assembly techniques. Its aim was for first flight of the new large transport to take place in 2012.




Y-20 prototype in original yellow and green paint.
Source Baidu ( but obviously taken from Airliners.net )



On 26th Jan 2013, the Y-20 prototype in its yellow and green paint scheme took off for the first time and landed safely after an uneventful flight lasting about an hour. By early March, 2 more ground tests occurred and the Y-20 sported an all new greyish-black paint scheme. Second flight took place on 20th April. Photographs of the first prototype bearing the pennant number red 781 started to appear on the Chinese internet by September 2013.


 
 
The first Y-20 prototype red 781. Source : Baidu
 


By December 2013, the second prototype had achieved first flight. This was followed by the appearance of the third prototype bearing the pennant number 783 just before China's Army Day celebrations on 1st Aug 2014. In November the same year, Y-20 783 made its first appearance at the Zhuhai Airshow. The following month, prototypes number 4 and 5 made their debut.

Towards late 2015, the Chinese news media had it that the development of the Y-20 had been completed.

In June 2016, the first two production Y-20 had been handed over to the PLAAF at a roll-out ceremony. The Y-20 had been declared in operational service with the PLAAF on 6th July 2016 during an induction ceremony which took place in an air base in Chengdu, as widely reported by the Chinese as well as international media.




The first two operational Y-20 being readied for hand over.
Source : Chinese Internet
 
 
 
The first operational Y-20. Chinese Internet


 
The first operational Y-20 arrives on the tarmac. Chinese Internet
 


The Y-20's induction ceremony. Source : Chinese Internet


Y-20 Video by Chinese MOD



 


 

Released in conjunction with the official induction of the Y-20 into operation service on 6th Jul 2016, the video opens with an excerpt from the ancient Chinese book of Zhuangzi regarding the legend of the Kunpeng, highlighting the two separate words 鲲 and 鹏 in red. Note that classical Chinese text is read from the right to the left and vertically from top to bottom, the exact opposite from contemporary Chinese which follows the Romanised horizontal left to right.

It shows the first flight and the subsequent series of tests the Y-20 had undergone, including operations at high elevations ( 高原试验 ), extreme cold weather ( 高寒试验 ), cross winds ( 正侧风试验 ), rain ( 雨中飞行试验 ) and night operations ( 夜间飞行试验 ).

The second half of the video focused on the functional capabilities of the Y-20 which includes all-weather rapid armour deployment ( 全天候快速机动部署 ),  large scale strategic air drops (大规模战略投送 )  joint operative airborne deployments ( 整建制空投空降作战 ), disaster relief and humanitarian assistance ( 抢险救灾和人道主义援助 ).

It ends with the words Big Heart (大情怀 ), Big Contribution (大奉献 ), Big Co-operation ( 大协同 ), Big Advancement (大跨越 ) and Big Lift (大运载 ). Don't you just love these commie propanganda? They feed the souls of billions!



Aerodynamic Layout

 


Reports in the Chinese media suggested that the designers of the Y-20 studied the aerodynamics and structural designs of the Ilyushin Il-76 closely and also " incorporated " features of the Boeing C-17 Globemaster, a tacit way of saying they copied the Russian and American designs. In fact on closer look the Y-20 has a striking resemblance to the C-17, from the swept-back cantilever high wing to the rather rotund fuselage, the main landing gear assembly and the T-tail. At first glance, most people would find it difficult to tell the two aircrafts apart if all the identification decals and pennant numbers were removed.

Although some authorities like the folks at Global Security believe that the resemblance is only superficial as the laws governing aeronautical engineering and aerodynamics are the same in any country, the similarities between the Y-20 and the C-17 is anything but. Just looking at the tail assemblies and you will realize that the Chinese copied the Boeing design lock stock and barrel. Perhaps they are not smart enough to even modify and enhance an existing design. Even when plagiarizing, do it creatively and make it less obvious!

We also know for a fact that China had obtained classified technical documents on the C-17 through espionage. In 2009 an ex-Boeing contractor had been convicted of selling the secret documents to Chinese agents covering not just the C-17 but also the Space Shuttle and the Delta IV rocket. Unfortunately, blatant infringement of intellectual property rights is nothing new to China and the Chinese who had reverse engineered almost every thing that they had laid their dirty hands on, from aircrafts to missiles and engines.



The Xian Y-20 ( above ) looks strikingly similar to the
Boeing C-17 Globemaster III shown below. Source : Chinese Internet

 
 
The RCAF Boeing C-17 shown here has a pair of wingtip winglets,
 a slightly rounder nose cone and a slightly different wheel arrangement
for its main landing gear, compared to the Y-20. Source : Wikipaedia


The Load Capacity


The Y-20 was designed and constructed with the aim of improving on the performance of the Il-76 in all aspects. The Il-76 is and will still be the mainstay of the Chinese strategic airlift fleet, until enough of the Y-20 can come into operational service.



A PLAAF Il-76MD Candid strategic transport landing at
Perth Airport during the search for MH-370 in 2014.
The Il-76 is currently the backbone of the Chinese
strategic transport fleet. Source : Chinese Wikipaedia

The Il-76MD and the Y-20 have comparable external dimensions with both aircrafts measuring about 47m in length and almost 15m in height. Only the Il-76 has a slightly longer wing span at 50m compared with the Y-20's at 45m. The empty weight of the Il-76MD stands at 89000kg while the Y-20 weighs in at 100000kg, a good 11 tons heavier. They are currently powered by the same D-30KP-2 engines and both aircrafts have roughly the same range when fully loaded, 4400km for the Il-76MD and 4500km for the Y-20. So how is it that the Y-20 could have a maximum payload of 66 tons, a 37.5% increase from the Il-76MD's 48 tons really defies logic.

It certainly cannot be accounted for by the slight increase in aerodynamic efficiency of the Y-20 over the Il-76 alone. It could also not have been an increase of the load capacity at the expense of fuel capacity, otherwise one would observe a drastic reduction of the aircraft's range, which was not the case for the Y-20. Therefore the only probable conclusion is that the Y-20's 66 ton maximum cargo load is only attainable when it is fitted with the new WS-20 high bypass turbofans which have a higher thrust rating. There are unofficial estimates that when configured with the same set of four D-30KP-2 engines as the Il-76, the current Y-20 could only lift about 50 tons, marginally better than the Il-76.
 
The Il-76MD has a deeper but narrower and shorter cargo hold measuring 24.54 x 3.45 x 3.40m long where as the Y-20's freight compartment is wider and taller at 20 x 4.5 x 4m. The Chinese claim that this bigger cargo hold also gives the Y-20 more flexibility in terms of the variety of cargo it can carry, especially those that have large vertical dimensions. This is probably true as most cargo bulk out before they max out their weight limit. An aft ramp, part of the rear cargo-loading assembly, allows loading and unloading of large-sized cargo and equipment.

The Y-20 is capable of carrying all existing types of Chinese armoured vehicles including the Norinco ZTZ-99 main battle tank of the PLA which can weigh anything from 51 to 58 tons, depending on the variant. There are unconfirmed reports that the freight compartment of the Y-20 had been re-designed in 2010 to specifically allow it to accommodate the ZTZ-99A2, the PLA's heaviest MBT.


The ZTZ-99 main battle tank of the PLA can be
transported by the Y-20. Chinese Internet.


It's The Engines, Stupid



The Y-20 is powered by 4 Soloviev D-30KP-2 low bypass turbofans imported from Russia. These are very old engine designs originating from the Soviet era. The D-30 series engines started out in the mid-seventies as a consequence of the Soviet Union's quest for a supersonic interceptor to supplement and replace the MiG-25 Foxbat which had two very powerful but thirsty Tumansky R-15 turbojets that performed poorly at low altitudes and had a tendency to break down at maximum throttle. The new engine, a turbofan in its afterburning version known as the D-30F6 rectified most of the shortcomings of its predecessor and gave the next generation interceptor the MiG-31 Foxhound a top speed of Mach 2.83 at height and supersonic performance at low altitudes. The non-afterburning military version, the D-30KP-2, had been installed on the Il-76MD/TD, the Il-62M, and on the newest H-6K bomber of the PLAAF while the civilian version, the D-30KU, had been used on the Tupolev Tu-154M airliner.




 
The D-30KP-2 turbofans of the Y-20. Chinese Internet

 
 
 
A close-up view of the D-30KP-2. Chinese Internet



The D-30KP-2 off the Il-76MD. Source : Wikipaedia



The Achilles' heel of the Chinese aviation industry had always been its inability to design and manufacture quality jet engines that are needed to power modern day aircrafts and that is not at all surprising. To construct an aircraft engine like the Pratt and Whitney F117-PW-100 that powers the C-17 Globemaster requires knowledge and expertise in multiple disciplines from material science to metallurgy to thermodynamics. Manufacturing tolerances are extreme, where even small quantities of impurities can lead to premature metal fatigue and catastrophic failures. Clearances between moving parts like the turbine blades are frequently measured in microns, rather than millimeters. These are some of the reasons why jet engines cannot be manufactured by just any Tom, Dick and Harry, or perhaps we should say any Mao, Deng and Xi.

When reverse engineering the J-11 fighter which is a legitimate licence produced version of the Su-27 Flanker by China, the Chinese made WS-10 engine for the illegal copy, the J-11B, was said to require servicing after 30 hours of use compared to the average of 400 hours for Russian produced engines. This illustrates perfectly that a physically identical copy does not always necessarily guarantee functional parity.

Though the Y-20 prototypes and the current initial low rate production batches are fitted with the imported D-30KP-2 turbofans, the Chinese have great plans to ultimately install their own indigenously produced WS-20 turbofan on the Y-20.

The WS-20 ( 涡扇20 ) or Wo Shan-20, meaning Turbofan-20 in Chinese, is believed to have evolved from the Shenyang WS-10A, an improved version of the problematic WS-10 that powered the initial batches of the J-11 clones. It is a high bypass turbofan with a thrust of between 13000 to 16000kgf, a significant improvement over the 10500kgf thrust of the D-30KP-2. Being a high bypass rather than a low bypass turbofan like the older D-30KP-2 means the WS-20 will have a larger diameter by virtue of its larger fans and bypass ducts. It looks a lot shorter and chubbier. Apart from having a higher thrust which can translate to a shorter take-off distance and a greater maximum payload, the additional advantages that the new engine is expected to offer includes better fuel efficiency, lower emissions, lower maintenance, higher reliability, longer life span and lower acoustic signature.

The WS-20 had been researched in secrecy and not much was known about its development. By 2014, photographs began appearing on the Chinese internet showing an Il-76 test aircraft with a very unusual engine configuration : 3 of the usual D-30KP-2 and a WS-20 engine mounted on for flight testing. Reports claim that the WS-20 had completed ground and flight tests within an eighty day period between Sep and Dec 2014 and could hopefully be equipping the Y-20 in 2017 or 2018.


Il-76 test bed with its 3 original D-30KP-2 and a WS-20 on the port wing. Chinese Internet 


Diagram of the WS-20 Turbofan. Chinese Internet


Model of the WS-20 Turbofan. Chinese Internet


The Avionics



The Y-20 has an advance digital cockpit that is supposedly light years ahead of the Il-76's largely analogue interface. It features an indigenous integrated avionics suite based on the ARINC429 data bus to link up the various components like the flight control system, the navigation system, the communications system, and the monitoring systems for the engines and meteorological data.

There are reports that it will be equipped with a slew of self-protection apparatus including a missile approach warning system ( MAWS ), ? radar warning receiver ( RWR ) and chaff and flare dispensers.


Aerial Refueling Ready?



Can the Y-20 receive fuel in the air? IHS Jane's does not think so but logic tells us that it should, since this is the only practical way of extending the range an aircraft significantly without increasing its take-off weight or reducing its load carrying capacity or drastically reducing its aerodynamic performance via external drop tanks. After load capacity, range is probably the next most important parameter for a transport aircraft. It is range that defines a strategic transport - the ability to move materiel and personnel from one theatre to another. Therefore it does not make sense to design a next generation transport without this critical capability. However, whether the Y-20 has the capability of receiving fuel in the air is not immediately obvious from all the photographs in the public domain. We do not see any refueling probes protruding from the fuselage or any structures that could be boom receptacles.



Computer generated image of the Y-20. Just like the winglets, the
dorsal refueling probe does not exist in the current production model.
Chinese Internet



CG image of a Y-20 with a dorsal refueling probe.
Chinese Internet
 
 
 
My suspicion? In their rush to launch the Y-20 into operational service, refueling capability had been omitted, just like how the D-30KP-2 engines are used as a stop gap measure while waiting for the development of the WS-20 to be completed. The Chinese aeronautical engineers have taken a leaf out of Microsoft's book and there are reasons for doing so.

Firstly, the PLA is so short on strategic airlift capability that they cannot accept any delays to the Y-20 project. The Y-20's range of 4500km with its maximum load of 66tons is already record breaking for the Chinese and is sufficient to allow it to fly non-stop traversing the breath of China from Harbin in the north-east to Kashgar in the far west ( 4128km ). Similarly, from Kashgar it can just about reach Djibouti in East Africa ( 4502km ) where China has opened a supply base. The PLAAF would probably prefer to have a Y-20 without refueling capability now, rather than to have to buy more Il-76 from Russia while waiting for the perfect Y-20 to be developed.

Secondly, even if the Y-20 had refueling capability, the PLAAF and the PLANAF have yet to develop an effective tanker fleet. The current H-6 bomber derived HU-6 tanker ( sometimes designated HY-6 or H-6U ) could carry 37 tons of fuel of which only 18.5 tons are transferable. While this is sufficient to fill the tanks of six J-8D fighters, it could take about three H-6U to fill the near empty tanks of a single Y-20. And since the probe and drogue system is used on all Chinese tankers and the maximum rate of transfer is 1500 liters per min, it would have taken 45mins to fill a Y-20, excluding the time spent maneuvering. Not exactly an efficient way to provide fuel. This is why the Chinese have recently also bought three Il-78 Midas tankers with much greater fuel capacity as an interim measure, while they try to field a tanker version of the Y-20. So, it really makes no difference in the short term if the initial tranche of Y-20 cannot be refueled in the air.




H-6U tanker with probe and drogue system and J-10 fighters. Chinese Internet



Less likely, the engineers might have been waiting for the refueling system of the Y-20 based future aerial tanker to be finalized before fitting it to the transport fleet. Logically, only the flying boom system should be used on large aircrafts since the rate of fuel transfer can be much higher than what the probe and drogue system could achieve. The Y-20 based future tanker would than have to be a multi-system set-up like the KC-10 or the KC-46, since it will have to service a horde of legacy fighters of the PLAAF with Soviet, Russian or Chinese origins all fitted with probes and also the Y-20 series which presumably will adopt the boom system.

Assuming that it has not already been installed, the refueling system will probably be installed on later tranches of the Y-20 transport, as well as all the special mission derivatives.



A KC-46A Pegasus of the USAF deploys its centerline drogue 10th Oct 2015.
The boom remain retracted as were the wingpod drogues. USAF Photo






Future Developments



Just like its Russian counterpart the venerable Ilyushin Il-76 which had spawned several variants including the Il-78 Midas aerial refueling tanker and the A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning and control, the Y-20 will surely be adapted for similar functions within the PLAAF and the PLANAF after sufficient numbers have been procured to fulfill transportation needs.

The Chinese Navy would definitely do well with a long range maritime patrol aircraft for anti-submarine warfare based on the Y-20, a capability it would need if its ambition is to dominate the Southern Seas ( first island chain ) and beyond ( second island chain ).

The Air Force would need many more AWACS aircrafts than the few Il-76 based KJ-2000 and the KJ-500 that it currently has if it were to be taken as a serious player. The Y-20 actually owed part of its existence to the need for an large platform to mount an airborne radar so a Y-20 AWACS is definitely on the cards.




A computer generated image of an AWACS based on
the Y-20 airframe. Source : Chinese Internet




Both the Navy and the Air Force would need many more tankers now that the PLA is deploying further from home than before, illegally occupying reefs and artificial islands in the South China Sea, opening a base in Djibouti, anti-piracy patrols at the Horn of Africa and of course the increasingly frequent intrusion into Japanese airspace over the Ryukyu Islands and Senkaku Island. All current PLA aerial tankers including the H-6U and the Il-78M use the probe and drogue refueling system, unlike the boom system depicted in the computer generated image below. It remains to be seen what system the future tanker would adopt. As explained above, perhaps both?




CG image of an Aerial Refueling Tanker version of the Y-20
with the flying boom system and the J-31 stealth fighter.



Other special mission variants including but not limited to command and control, search and rescue, ELINT/ECM, psyops and fire fighting are all possible future developments.



Exporting the Y-20 



It is probably a certainty that the Y-20 would be available for export sometime down the road when the type has matured and the engine issue settled. There are not many long range strategic airlifters that are currently in production and China has a rather niche product on hand. With the Boeing C-17 already out of production, there is really only the modernized Il-76MD-90A left as its competitor in the same class.

Who might need and could afford to buy the Y-20? Surely not the Japanese or the Americans, but perhaps the Middle Easterners like Saudi Arabia who are increasingly leaning towards Russia and China for arms supply, the Egyptians who are desperately fighting the Brotherhood and buying up whatever they could lay their hands on, and the Iranians who constantly have some things to hide or shift. Further afield would be the South Americans like Argentina with new ambitions in the Southern Atlantic and with nobody to turn to for combat aircrafts except the Chinese and the Russians. Closer to home would be Pakistan, China's long time ally who would definitely buy whatever it takes to counter their mutual enemy India, maybe Bangladesh and some other South East Asian nations sympathetic to the Chinese cause like Thailand, Cambodia and Laos.

The prospect for foreign sales would be even higher with the diversification into special mission aircrafts.




The Xian Y-20 can carry a maximum of 66 tons.



The Y-20 with smoky Soloviev D-30KP-2 engines. Chinese Internet.


 

Strategic Significance



China has huge ambitions to be an East Asian Power and ultimately a World Superpower. To fulfill that goal it has to have a powerful military and the capability of global force projection. In its efforts to build a strategic air force, it had already achieved impressive results in a very short period of time with its fleet of tactical fighters and strike aircrafts, stressing quality over quantity. It had however fallen short in the large aircraft department, seriously lacking strategic bombers and heavy transport aircraft in both quantity and quality and had not had the means to construct them domestically. The H-6 bomber for example is a copy of the Tu-16 which went into operational service with the Soviets in 1954 and had been all but retired by 1993.

It had to rely on the Russians and to some extend the Ukrainians as the provider of large platforms and still could not lay their hands on sufficient numbers. The Y-20 project is China's first successful domestic attempt to build a large aircraft and with it the hope that it could forever rid itself of this unhealthy dependence on Russia.

Officially, the PLAAF claims that it needs larger numbers of transport aircrafts with more advance capabilities to better fulfill its military responsibilities, including national security, domestic and international rescue and relief work. But who buys transport aircraft for just internal security, SAR and HADR? The real reason for the Y-20's existence is that with the rapid mechanization of its Army, the Chinese Air Force must have the capability to support the deployment of these mobile troops wherever they might be required, in or out of the country. They would also have to support ( illegal ) island garrisons and naval operations out to the First Island Chain, a long line of islands and land masses including the Spratly Islands, the Philippines, the Ryukyu Islands, Japanese main islands and even the Kurile Islands in the far north. Some reports suggest that China might buy up to 400 Y-20 while others even estimated that China might need 1000 Y-20s, based on equivalent American and Russian force structures. Such grandiose figures may not be realistic as even producing 100 or 200 Y-20 would have been an astounding achievement. At the current rate of production of 10 aircrafts a year, it would require 100 years to build a thousand strong fleet. Of course one might argue that this is only the low rate initial production ( LRIP ) and the production rate will surely be ramped up later. For comparison, Boeing produced 279 C-17 Globemaster III in its two decade long production run.



 
Infographic from China Daily dating back to 2013 showing
possible range of the Y-20 with and without refueling.


With its range of 4500km fully loaded, the Y-20 could reach the US territory of Guam from Shanghai, a distance of 3099km. Conversely, from Hainan Island, the Australian city of Darwin is 4256km away and within its reach. If staging from Fiery Cross Reef of the Spratly Islands, it could almost reach Perth in Western Australia which is 4638km away. From Kashgar, it could reach Warsaw, Poland, 4375km away. All these can be achieved by the current LRIP Y-20 without aerial refueling capabilities.

In the future, kitted with refueling systems, it is not inconceivable that the Y-20 might be able to reach Anchorage, Alaska from Harbin ( 5370km ), or London from Kashgar ( 5812km ), or Sydney, Australia, from the Spratly Islands ( 6308km ). I can already visualise scenes from the Red Dawn playing out at Botany Bay. Now you know why those Goddamned airstrips at Fiery Cross have to go the moment hostilities escalate.


Just in case you wondered where those distance figures came from.

The emergence of large numbers of special missions Y-20 like AWACS and maritime patrol in the future would give China monitoring capabilities to effect anti-access / area denial ( A2/AD ) policies to territories up to the First Island Chain or beyond, should it wishes.

The experience and knowhow gained in the design and construction of the Y-20 and its derivatives would in no doubt be applied in China's next generation strategic bomber project, the H-20, hypersonic, if the Russian news agency Sputnik were to be believed. The article also claimed that the bomber would be invisible to air defense, a dead give away that it cannot be taken seriously.

Just like the C-17, the Y-20 could be used as a tactical transport for intra-theatre movement of cargo and personnel. It has a relatively short minimum take-off distance and the capability to land and take-off from unprepared airstrips. It can safety operate from air fields located at high elevations like the Tibetan Plateau. It can operate in all sorts of adverse weather conditions. All these characteristics are hallmarks of a tactical transport. Whether this would happen in the short term is another matter, since China has a whole host of smaller tactical transport like the Y-7 and the Y-8 to fulfill those roles.



Conclusion



The Y-20 is an admirable aircraft. Not many countries could build aircrafts and even less could build one exceeding 200 tons. Unfortunately, China achieved this feat not entirely through their own efforts. Media sources indicated that China received technical assistance from both Russia and Ukraine, resulting in the Y-20 looking a lot like the Antonov An-70, albeit with jet engines instead of propellers. They also cheated through espionage or unauthorized reverse engineering by copying features of the C-17 and probably the Il-76. If only there was a World Anti-Doping Agency equivalent in the world of aviation, the Y-20 might just have been banned from obtaining its flight certifications.

Even so, the Y-20 in its current production form is far from complete or perfect. Although of a similar size as the C-17, its maximum payload is significantly less. Its imported engines are dated designs going back to the Soviet era, low bypass turbofans that are heavy and fuel inefficient. It seems to be lacking aerial refueling capabilities, an all-important feature that should have been incorporated right from the beginning.

Today, 1st August, is coincidentally China's Armed Forces Day. Would you consider the Y-20 " indigenous "?




The Roundel of the PLAAF contains the Chinese characters
八 ( ba, eight ) and 一  ( yi, one ) arranged vertically.
It signifies the 1st August anniversary of the founding of
the People's Liberation Army in 1927. Wikipaedia.




The Y-20 prototype from the rear. Chinese Internet


The Y-20 prototype landing. Chinese Internet


Footnote


The earliest written reference to the Kunpeng could be traced to the ancient Chinese text of Zhuangzi ( 庄子 ) from the late Warring States period ( 476 - 221 BC ). Named for its traditional author the Taoist sage Zhuangzi himself, it contains stories and anecdotes that exemplified the carefree philosophy of Taoism and is regarded as one of the greatest literary works in all of Chinese history.

The story of the Kunpeng appeared in Carefree Wanderings ( 逍遥游 Xiaoyaoyou ), the first of the Inner Chapters ( 內篇 Neipian ) and the relevant excerpts are as follows :

《庄子·逍遥游》:  " 北冥有鱼,其名曰鲲。鲲之大,不知其几千里也;化而为鸟,其名为鹏。鹏之背,不知其几千里也。怒而飞,其翼若垂天之云;是鸟也,海运则将徙于南冥。南冥者,天池也。"  " 鹏之徙于南冥也,水击三千里,抟扶摇而上者九万里,去以六月息者也。"


Briefly translated, it says that there is a fish in the northern oceans and it is known as Kun. Kun is huge and measures several thousand li. When it turns into a bird, its name is Peng. The back of Peng also stretches several thousand li. When angered, Peng flies and its wings cover the skies like the hanging clouds. As a bird, Peng migrates to the southern oceans, the humongous heavenly pond. As Peng flies, its wings strike the water and generates waves of three thousand li. It creates winds that soar ninety thousand li into the skies. The trip south takes six months.

The original text is of course much longer but most of the descriptions about the mythical Kunpeng lies in the opening verses. It is written in classical Chinese, so it's much like reading Shakespeare in its unabridged form, and you guessed it - Google Translate does not work well on these ancient verses.

So, a fish in the northern realms, a bird in the southern domain, throw in a monster tsunami and add a super whirlwind, that's how a legend was born.




鲲鹏展翅九万里 : The Kunpeng extends its wings and flies
ninety thousand li ( miles ). Chinese Internet

The Xiaoyaoyou passage on the Kunpeng in calligraphy. Chinese Internet

Taoist sage. Perhaps Master Zhuang or Zhuangzi might
look like this in his later years. Chinese Internet