Gone In 35 Seconds : Spatial Disorientation And The First Fatal F-35 Crash

 F-35A Photo : JASDF

The Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II is one of the newest and most advanced tactical fighter that is beginning to populate the air forces of the United States and some of its allies in sufficient numbers to make a difference operationally. Despite having a difficult development cycle which was plagued with everything from cost over-runs to performance issues, the F-35 has a relatively benign safety record and managed to remain crash-free for 12 years since its first flight. That all changed in October 2018 when a US Marine Crops F-35B suffered engine failure and crashed during a routine training flight in South Carolina. Fortunately there were no fatalities as the pilot managed to eject safely.

The first and only fatal crash of the F-35 occurred on 9th April 2019 and it involved a Japan Air Self Defense Force F-35A operating out of Misawa Air Base ( 三沢基地 ). The crash site was the Pacific Ocean some 135km due east of Misawa. The pilot apparently flew the aircraft at high speed into the sea and did not send any signal of distress nor attempted to eject prior to impact. Parts of the wreckage were found scattered over a wide area on the seabed at a depth of 1500m. After 2 months of investigations, the JASDF concluded that spatial disorientation was most likely the cause of the mishap though gravity induced loss of consciousness could also be a remote possibility.

How could an accident like this happen and what is spatial disorientation? Could better pilot training have prevented such an accident?

F-35A 89-8706 Photo : JASDF

Japan's F-35A

The Japanese MOD placed an initial order for 42 F-35A back in Dec 2011 to replace its fleet of ageing F-4EJ Phantoms. 4 would be assembled at Lockheed Martin's Fort Worth plant while the rest would be built at the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Komaki South F-35 Final Assembly and Check Out ( FACO ) facility in Aichi Prefecture. In those days the unit cost of the F-35A was USD126million or about JPY14billion. JASDF has so far received 13 F-35A and they are assigned to the 302nd Tactical Fighter Squadron of the 3rd Air Wing based at Misawa Air Base. Misawa is located in Aomori Prefecture in the North-eastern region of Japan. Aomori is famous for its apples and also for its scallops farmed in Mutsu Bay.

F-35A 79-8705 at Misawa AB on 2 Nov 2017 for safety checks
 before its trans-Pacific flight to the US. USAF Photo

 

 

JASDF F-35A 79-8705 escorted by a USAF F-16 assigned to the 115th Fighter Wing,
Wisconsin Air National Guard on its maiden voyage across the Pacific on 6 Nov 2017.
Photo : USAF

The Fatal Accident

According to press release information from JASDF ( Japanese only ), the F-35A that crashed had the serial number 79-8705 and production number AX-5. It was the first Japanese-assembled F-35A and it was only unveiled at the Komaki plant on 5th Jun 2017. Its first flight was on 12th Jul 2017. It was flown to Misawa AB on 2 Nov 2017 to prepare for the trans-Pacific flight to the US for final flight testing. This was to ensure all future Japanese assembled F-35s were up to standard. It went into active service on 28th May 2018 with the transitional F-35 squadron, a temporary unit of the JASDF, before the aircrafts were assigned to the 302nd TFS. The 302nd TFS had been operating out of Hyakuri AB for several years and only completed the relocation to Misawa Air Base in March 2019.

The pilot was subsequently revealed as Major Hosomi Akinori ( 細見彰里 ), a 41 year old veteran with 3200 hours of flight experience but only 60 of those hours were type specific for the F-35A. Japanese media stated that this aircraft has the latest Block 3F mission software with full warfighting capability.




F-35A 79-8705 at Nagoya Airport NKM/RJNA on 2 Nov 2017
Photo Yabyansan via flyteam.jp

On that fateful Tuesday evening of 9th April 2019, the sun had set at 1805 hours. Maj Hosomi was the flight leader for a group of four F-35A on routine air combat maneuvering ( ACM ) training over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Aomori. The formation took off from Misawa Air Base at 1859 hours and proceeded to perform two-on-two ACM training. At 1925 hours Maj Hosomi reported that the two opposing aircrafts had been shot down in the training with the transmission " 21, two kills ", 21 being his call sign. At 1926 hours the F-35A was at an altitude of 31500ft when ground controllers advised the major to make a turn to port and to descend in order to maintain a safe distance from an approaching US military aircraft ( type unspecified ) at 37000ft. Maj Hosomi replied " Affirmative, Roger " and began his turn and descend. Twenty seconds later, upon completing the turn and by then descended to 15500ft, Maj Hosomi transmitted in a calm voice " Roger, Knock it off " ( meaning termination of training ). Information from datalink and ground radar would later reveal that at this stage the F-35A descended with a speed of 900km/h. Within the next 15 seconds, the F-35A would continue its rapid descend from 14500ft with a speed of 1100km/h and then disappeared from the radar screens when it plunged below 1000ft. The time of impact was estimated at 1926 hours 30 seconds.




Plan view ( view from above ).
Red arrow shows path of Hosomi's F-35A.
Green arrow shows passing US military aircraft.
1. 1925hrs  2. 1926hrs  3. 1926hr15s  4. 1926hr30s
Source : JASDF

Side View ( vertical view ) Source JASDF



Spatial representation of F-35A final flight path. JASDF

Search and Rescue

The search and rescue ( SAR ) effort was probably activated the moment team mates and ground control lost contact with the distressed F-35A. JASDF reported that by 1947 hours eleven of their SAR assets were already airborne. At 1950 hours 5 ships and 2 aircrafts from the Maritime Self Defense Force ( JMSDF ) also joined the search effort. At 2145 hours floating debris had been located. Some of these were later recovered by a UH-60J helicopter from the SAR team operating out of Akita at 2210 hours. At 2248 hours the destroyer escort Chikuma was also on site to recover floating debris. The Air Staff had by then ( 2230 hours ) established an accident investigation committee. Eventually US Forces Japan and the Japanese Coast Guard would also chip in with SAR assets. The various units involved in the immediate SAR effort were as follows:

JASDF : 2 x U-125A and 2 x UH-60J Blackhawk
JMSDF : 1 x P-3C Orion and 1 x SH-60J Seahawk and 5 ships
USFJ    : 1 x P-8 Poseidon
JCG      : 3 ships

U-125A SAR Bizjet

UH-60J SAR Helo



Crash site is in the Pacific Ocean 135km east of Misawa AB.
Exact location of the wreckage is kept secret for obvious reasons.

 

Recovery and Salvage

In the week following the crash up to 17th April, multiple P-8A Poseidon Multi-mission Maritime Aircraft and the guided missile destroyer USS Stethem ( DDG-63 ) also joined in the JASDF-led search effort covering some 5000 sq nautical miles in area.

The USN subsequently chartered a commercial dive support and construction vessel, the Van Gogh, to assist in the search. The Singapore-operated Van Gogh with its onboard USN salvage team supported the search efforts of the research vessel Kaimei, owned by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology ( JAMSTEC ) and the JDS Chiyoda, a submarine rescue tender of the JMSDF. The 5747t Kaimei has sophisticated equipment to conduct high resolution 2D and 3D survey of the seafloor and is equipped with a remotely operated vehicle that can dive to a depth of 3000m.

The USN also deployed the latest version of its cable-controlled undersea recovery vehicle, the CURV-21 and the TPL-25 ( Towed Pinger Locator ) system in the salvage operation. On or after 3rd May, parts of the flight data recorder a.k.a. the black box were recovered. It was however severely damaged and no useful data could be retrieved. Its recovery therefore did not help in the crash investigation. Much of the wreckage were scattered in a wide area under 1500m of seawater.

The Kaimei deep-sea research vessel

The Van Gogh transiting Naha, Okinawa on 16th April 2019.
Credit on photo.

 

TPL-25 is a towed sensor used for locating emergency relocation pingers
 on downed navy and commercial aircraft at a maximum depth of 20000ft.
USN Photo 

The USN finally called off the search and salvage effort on 8th May though the Japanese MOD felt obliged to continue until they too gave up on 4th June, almost 2 months after the crash. Maj Hosomi's body was never found and his death was confirmed by the Japanese MOD on 7th June. Following the crash Japan has grounded its remaining fleet of 12 F-35A and suspended pre-delivery flight tests for the 14th F-35 from MHI's Komaki FACO facility.

Air Crash Investigation

With the paucity of information obtainable from the wreckage, the crash investigators had relied heavily on communications, ground radar tracking and peer-to-peer datalink information from the F-35's Multifunction Advanced Data Link ( MADL ) to reconstruct the unfolding events prior to the fatal accident. They eventually came to the conclusion that it was most likely due to pilot error, specifically spatial disorientation, that caused the crash. Engine failure was possibly ruled out as the aircraft in question was flying quite normally less than a minute before the crash and there were no signs that the pilot found anything amiss and no alarm had been raised regarding any malfunctions. The last radio transmission from the pilot in a calm voice 15 seconds prior to impact also supported the fact that nothing of distress had been detected at that point in time.

The investigators also somehow determined that Maj Hosomi did not attempt to eject from his aircraft as it was barreling towards the surface of the sea and neither did he respond to alerts from the aircraft's warning systems such as the ground proximity warning system.

The execution of several abrupt maneuvers in rapid succession which included turning, rolling and descending could have severely affected his spatial awareness leading to the wrong corrective actions, potential converting a dangerous situation into an irrecoverable one. The final verdict of the investigators named spatial disorientation to be the most likely cause of the fatal crash with gravity -induced loss of consciousness as a remote possibility.

So what is spatial disorientation and what role does it have in aviation disasters? In order to understand spatial disorientation, we need to dwell into realm of aeromedical physiology a little.

 

Introduction to Spatial Disorientation by Hank Caruso
Image : Naval Aviation News

 

Spatial Orientation

Spatial orientation refers to the natural human ability to maintain our body orientation and posture in relation to our physical environment, at rest and during motion. From an evolutionary point of view humans are adapted to maintaining spatial orientation to the ground. Three-dimensional environments encountered during flight or deep diving are unfamiliar to the human body and can create sensory conflicts and illusions that makes spatial orientation difficult or sometimes impossible to achieve.

According to the Federal Aviation Administration ( FAA ), statistics show that between 5 to 10% of all general aviation accidents can be attributed to special disorientation, of which 90% are fatal.

Sensory Systems

Achieving spatial orientation requires the effective perception and interpretation of sensory inputs from the visual, vestibular, proprioceptive and auditory senses.

Visual references provide the dominant sensory information to maintain spatial orientation. This is especially true if our body and / or environment is in motion.

The vestibular system located in the inner ear has two distinct components with the 3 semicircular canals responsible for detecting angular acceleration ( rotational movements ) in 3 different axis corresponding to the pitch, yaw and roll movements of an aircraft while the otolith organs ( utricule and the saccule ) detects linear and gravitational acceleration respectively.

The proprioceptors are sensory receptors located in the muscles, tendons, joints and skin that play a small role in maintaining spatial orientation. They do however give some indication of posture by sensing the relative position of our body parts in relation to each other and by sensing points of physical contact between body parts and the surrounding environment.

Auditory input has the smallest role among all the senses involved in maintaining spatial orientation.

The Federal Aviation Administration videos below may help you understand the functions of the vestibular system.

Vestibular Illusions Leading To Disorientation

Since visual cues are the most important sensory input for maintaining spatial orientation, the loss of a reliable external visual reference point such as the horizon at night or in adverse weather may lead to the vestibular and proprioceptive systems not interpreting the actual motion of the body through space correctly. Here are some of the vestibular illusions that can occur during flight. Somatogyral illusions originate from the semi-circular canals while somatogravic ones originate from the otolith organs :

The Leans ( somatogyral ) - sudden return to level flight after a gradual and prolonged turn that was unnoticed by the pilot

The Graveyard Spin ( somatogyral ) - entering a prolonged ( more than 15 or 20 seconds ) spin intentionally or unintentionally, the pilot gradually loses the sensation of turning and when the turn is corrected feels a strong sensation of turning in the opposite direction. Any attempts to correct this false illusion results in the aircraft returning to spinning in the original direction, all the while losing altitude. Ground impact is inevitable unless this spatial disorientation is recognized early.

The Graveyard Spiral ( somatogyral ) - similar to Graveyard spiral but caused by return to level flight after prolonged intentional or unintentional bank turn.

The Coriolis Illusion ( somatogyral ) - also known as the cross-coupled stimulation, it is a severe tumbling sensation brought about by moving the head out of the plane of rotation, simultaneously stimulating one set of semi-circular canals while deactivating another set. It can happen when the pilots tilts his head upwards, downwards or sideways when the aircraft is turning. It causes a strong and unpleasant sensation of tumbling which often has a rapid onset. The tumbling feeling can be bad enough to cause nausea and the pilot may feel the aircraft pitching, rolling and yawing all at the same time. It can result in the pilot quickly becoming incapacitated by vertigo and losing control of the aircraft. The severity of this phenomenon is a function of the magnitude of the initial turn, the direction of the head movement and the speed at which the head movement is made.

The G-Excess Illusion ( somatogyral ) - a vestibular illusion that can occur even in VFR ( visual flight rules ) conditions. Happens when the aircraft enters a tight turn that puts more than 1G load on it and the pilot looks back at the turn. An illusion of underbank occurs if the head is facing the inside of the turn elevated or if the head is facing the outside of the turn depressed. The pilot can erroneously perceive that the angle of bank and G-load are decreasing. The instinctive reaction to apply more bank could stall the aircraft or result in ground impact and is particularly dangerous in low altitude and high speed operations. Here's a USAF video on the G-Excess illusion.

Inversion Illusion ( somatogravic ) - usually involves high performance aircrafts, a steep ascend followed by a sudden return to level flight causes the illusion of tumbling backwards or being inverted. The pilot invariably respond by lowering the nose of the aircraft which intensifies the illusion.

Head-Up Illusion ( somatogravic ) - sudden forward linear acceleration during level flight creates illusion that the nose of the aircraft is pitching up. The pilot's response is to pitch the nose down. Night take-off from a well-lit airport into a completely dark sky and carrier catapult take-off are examples that can cause this illusion.

Head-Down Illusion ( somatogravic ) - sudden linear deceleration during level flight creates sensation that the aircraft is pitching down. The pilot may then pitch the nose up and if this occurs when the airspeed is already low such as during final approach, a stall may be inevitable.

With so many possible scenarios that can lead to spatial disorientation, I have had a new found respect for aviators, especially those who fly advanced military fighter jets. It should be noted that visual illusions, of which there are just as many compared with vestibular illusions, have yet to be included in the discussion since they are not relevant in the final flight of F-35A 79-8705.

G-Excess Illusion by Hank Caruso
Image : Naval Aviation News

What Could Have Happened

The sky would be dark over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Misawa by 1926 hours on 9th April 2019. The waxing crescent moon would have been setting and close to the south-western horizon. The ocean surface would have been dark save for a few dim lights from fishing vessels or the occasional commercial vessel transiting through that area. If there were significant cloud cover on that night, it could have made things worse. Therefore one could possibly conclude that there would have been little visual input for Maj Hosomi and his team when they were flying that night. The most important sensory system for maintaining spatial orientation had been removed.

If the flight path diagrams released by the MOD were drawn to scale and were accurate, we can see that Maj Hosomi's F-35 did make some maneuvers in its final 2 minutes of flight that could potentially trigger spatial disorientation. There was the sustained turning which began from 1925 hours when he was directed to descend but at no point was there a sudden return to level flight. There was also an initial rapid descend followed by an even more acute turning rate before the final plunge.

From the communications intercepts, Maj Hosomi was still communicating normally 15 seconds prior to impact. So it is likely that the spatial disorientation could have taken place earlier but went unrecognized by Maj Hosomi or a sudden and highly debilitating event could have taken in the last 15 seconds of flight.

Looking at the flight profile I would say a G-Excess type spatial disorientation could be the most likely illusion encountered by Maj Hosomi. After all, he was turning at relatively low altitudes ( 14500ft and below ) and at very high speed ( in excess of 1100km/h ) in the final 15 seconds of flight. Looking back at the turn at this point in time could trigger the G-Excess phenomenon and if he had responded inappropriately by increasing the angle of bank without a corresponding increase in back pressure on the stick, the result will be a rapid deterioration into a controlled flight into terrain ( CFIT ) situation. There may simply not be enough altitude or time for recovery.

The Coriolis type phenomenon is also possible during the final turn taken by the F-35 as Maj Hosomi could have inadvertently looked up, down or sideways during the turn thus triggering the incapacitating tumbling sensation characteristic of this vestibular illusion. It could be severe enough to make him lose control of the aircraft.

Contributing factors that could have lead to the loss of spatial orientation include fatigue, inclement weather, unexpected change of flight plans, distractions caused by equipment malfunctions, personal time pressures and even the personal attitude of the pilot ( self-confidence ). Many of these factors could be at work on that fateful night.

The waxing crescent moon on 9th April 2019

The waxing crescent moon would be close to the southern horizon
in the constellation of Sagittarius not far from Saturn.
Image : Sky and Telescope 

How To Prevent Spatial Disorientation

The surest way to completely prevent becoming spatially disorientated is to avoid flying altogether. If that's not an option, then experiencing spatial disorientation illusions in a controlled environment such as a Barany chair, a vertigon, or better still a Virtual Reality Spatial Disorientation Demonstrator ( spatial disorientation trainer ) can be important to help raise the awareness of spatial disorientation and to enable the aviator to recognize spatial disorientation early should it occur during flight.

The FAA's advice to avoid flight conditions that may lead to spatial disorientation is sensible but obviously not applicable to military pilots who may have to fly in the most adverse conditions.

That said, if the aviator still find himself or herself caught in a state of spatial disorientation, the most appropriate action would be to disregard one's sensory perception and to trust the flight instruments instead.

In its press release, the Air Staff concluded with separate recommendations for preventing G-LOC and spatial disorientation among F-35 pilots. For the latter, it recommended better pilot education and awareness on spatial disorientation as well as training on spatial disorientation trainer and training on flight simulator.

So let's take a closer look at spatial disorientation trainers and what they can do.

Virtual Reality Spatial Disorientation Demonstrator

The sensation of spatial disorientation cannot be faithfully reproduced in a conventional flight simulator. To experience such vestibular illusions one would need a special spatial disorientation trainer such as those made by the American company ETC Aircrew Training Systems. Such trainers not only enable pilots to experience the feeling of spatial disorientation and learn to recognize some of those illusions, they also train pilots in coping and recovery skills in an interactive environment.




ETC GL-6000 Spatial Disorientation Trainer aka Kraken.
Image : ETC Aircrew Training Systems

ETC makes many different types of air crew training equipment including several models of spatial disorientation trainers. The most advanced of these would be the GL-6000 Kraken - a research grade SD trainer that would set you back USD19million, and the price does not include the facilities you would need to house it. The only commissioned unit belongs to the US Navy and is located at the Captain Ashton Graybiel Acceleration Research Facility at Naval Medical Research Unit Dayton, Wright-Patterson AFB. The Kraken is so amazing it can have sustained motion in 360 degrees over 6 axis - pitch, yaw, roll, vertical, horizontal and planetary. It can reproduce a sustained 3G acceleration and can reproduce the motion forces experienced in not just fixed-wing aircrafts but also rotary, high speed watercrafts, submarines, high-speed land vehicles and more.

Of course not everybody can afford the Kraken or needs the Kraken. The JASDF has been a loyal client of ETC for the past 30 years with its purchase of the Gyrolab GL-1500 basic spatial disorientation trainer in 1989 followed by the purchase of the Gyrolab GL-4000 advanced spatial disorientation trainer in 2006. ETC announced the decision by the Japanese Defense Agency ( as the Ministry of Defense was then known as ) to purchase the GL-4000 in March 2005 and quoted the price at USD 4 million. It was to replace the then more than 15 year old GL-1500.

Gyrolab GL-1500 Basic SD Trainer. Used by JASDF since 1989.
Replaced by the GL-4000.
Image : ETC Aircrew Training Systems

Gyrolab GL-4000 Advanced SD Trainer. Used by JASDF since 2006.
Replaces the older GL-1500.
Image : ETC Aircrew Training Systems

Using its proprietary GYROLAB technology, ETC's spatial disorientation simulators provides the pilot with the most realistic flight experience short of actually flying the aircraft by combining the latest cutting edge flight simulation technology, including simultaneous ± 360 degree motion in pitch, roll, yaw and planetary, with real-world high definition visuals, realistic engine and flight sounds, detailed cockpit with closed loop flight controls and high fidelity flight models. These fixed and rotary flight profiles are flight-realistic and fully automated. Instructors can also create their own flight profiles through a proprietary editor software thereby allowing the trainer to keep pace with changing training requirements throughout its life cycle. ETC claims that the GYROLAB's ± 360 degree motion capability and its planetary motion, which gives it the capability to generate up to 3.0 Gs, makes it the most realistic and effective flight trainer currently available. And since all axes of motion can be used simultaneously, it can accurately reproduce the motion cues that cause pilots to mistake their aircraft position and motion with respect to the earth's surface, an error we call spatial disorientation or 空間識失調 ( Kukan Shiki Shicho ) as the Japanese know it.

Spatial Disorientation - The Scourge

Spatial Disorientation has always been a serious problem affecting military air forces and commercial airlines worldwide, resulting in many lost pilot ( and passenger ) lives and billions of dollars of aircraft losses. ETC estimated that it accounts for about a third of all military aircraft accidents globally.

The situation can only worsen as military aircrafts become increasing more complex and capable with faster acceleration, tighter turns and higher climbing rates. Increasingly challenging flight activities, increased night and inclement weather operations, night vision goggle flight operations all contribute to a greater risk of the occurrence of spatial disorientation.

Even the most experienced pilot can be susceptible to being spatially disorientated as basic human anatomy and physiology dictates our usual response to unusual external stimuli and those illusions, whether visual, vestibular or otherwise will affect the rookie and the veteran in exactly the same way. Having experienced spatial disorientation before will also not confer immunity to its effects in the future. It will however allow the disorientation event to be recognized more readily the next time it is encountered.

The only cost effective way to prevent spatial disorientation in military pilots of high performance jets is through education, by increasing awareness, and through training on a dedicated spatial disorientation trainer. The ultimate aim is to train the pilot to be able to recognize spatial disorientation early enough to apply the necessary coping and recovery response to avert a potential disaster. Awareness and preparedness are the two pillars in preventing spatial disorientation related accidents.

The loss of JASDF's F-35A with its pilot was a tragic accident from which lessons can be learnt. Since the cost of an advanced spatial disorientation trainer like the ETC GYROLAB GL-4000 or the AMST Airfox is miniscule compared to the cost of a modern 4th or 5th generation fighter jet, maybe all current and future F-35 operators should consider channeling more funds and effort in the procurement and the effective use of such training apparatus.

If God had intended us to fly, he would have made us better ears. Remember, 35 seconds, probably less, was all it had taken to destroy a brand new stealth fighter and claim the life of its pilot.

Addendum

In response to reader comment ... Thanks Ax

Although the Automatic Ground Collision Avoidance System ( Auto GCAS * ) has already been successfully installed on the F-16 since 2014 and has been credited with several saves since, the F-35 currently only has an earlier version of the software known as the Manual Ground Collision Avoidance System ( MGCAS ). This will require the pilot to be able to hear, see, process and heed the MGCAS warning and manually fly the aircraft away from the ground. MGCAS will not prevent a ground collision if the pilot is already unconscious or severely incapacitated by spatial disorientation.

The only thing that could have saved Major Hosomi will be an Auto GCAS, which upon failure of a correct response to a ground collision warning, will assume temporary control and engage the autopilot to row the aircraft upright and initiate a 5-G pull, getting the pilot and aircraft out of harm's way. Unfortunately Auto GCAS has yet to be operational on the F-35.

With successful implementation of the Auto GCAS on the F-16, the knowhow and experience allowed the Air Force Research Laboratory at Wright-Patterson AFB to fast-track F-35 Auto GCAS development and testing. Originally slated for F-35 Block 4.3 upgrade in late 2025, all tests for the life-saving technology has been completed in April 2019, and has been recommended for fielding, seven years ahead of schedule.

Meanwhile, work on the Automatic Integrated Collision Avoidance System goes on ...

AFRL's video on Auto GCAS here.

* In Japanese Auto GCAS is known as 自動地表面衝突回避システム

 

 

Automatic Collision Avoidance Technology / Fighter Risk Reduction Program Logo
Image : NASA

CASTEd Away : F-16 Production Shifting To India ... Exclusively

F-16C from Shaw AFB departs after refueling from a KC-135 aerial tanker during
Exercise Sentry Savannah 16-3 3rd Aug 2016.
Note its assortment of missiles including the AIM-120 AMRAAM,
AIM-9X, AGM-88 HARM and targeting pod. Photo : USAF

Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon

The Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon, nicknamed the Viper, is one of the most prolific 4th generation fighter aircraft in the world with more than 4573 produced and counting. It was originally conceived in the early seventies as a light weight fighter for selected NATO allies as a replacement for their then ageing F-104 Starfighter interceptor and also as a supplement to the highly capable but prohibitively expensive F-15 Eagle for the US Air Force. First flight took place in 1974 and the first F-16A was delivered to the USAF in 1978. Since then, it has also equipped the air forces of many non-NATO countries like Israel, Iraq, Egypt, UAE, Pakistan, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea.
 
Initially just an air superiority day fighter, the F-16 has over the years accumulated many game-changing enhancements and has evolved into the all-weather multi-role combat aircraft that it is today. With it acquisition costs had also escalated from an initial US$4.6 million for the F-16A Block 1 in 1978 to $60 million for the latest F-16V version today.

After close to four decades of distinguished service, the F-16 is gradually becoming a weary warhorse. It is being superseded in many aspects by newer generation combat aircrafts like its successor the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter and Russia's advanced Flankers like the Su-30 and the Su-35 and their Chinese clones.

Lockheed Martin still has enough F-16 on its order books to keep its production lines open until 2017 but beyond that the future is less certain. The company's focus has obviously shifted towards achieving volume production of the F-35, currently still stuck in the Low Rate Initial Production ( LRIP ) phase.

The latest development is Lockheed Martin's plan to move the entire F-16 production to India and its intention to develop the most super duper Fighting Falcon ever, the F-16 Block 70/72, exclusively for the Indian Air Force. Such a move will surely have global repercussions and strategic implications, and would probably mark the beginning of the end of the road for the Fighting Falcon.

F-16C of the Arizona Air National Guard 162nd Wing 8th Apr 2015. USAF Photo

 

Who Is Still Buying The F-16?

The USAF had long since stopped buying the F-16. All the available funds are currently channeled towards the procurement of the F-35A and Service Life Extension Program ( SLEP ) for the F-16 while awaiting sufficient numbers of the F-35 to fill the ranks.

There are currently also not many other countries that are still keen to acquire new build F-16s. In fact, some of the earliest adopters of the F-16 like the Netherlands and Portugal had already divested or retired part of their Falcon fleet. Some of these surplus F-16s were sold to countries like Jordan, Romania and Chile while others were cannibalized for parts to keep the existing fleet going for a few more years. More notable F-16 sales in the past few years included the 36 F-16IQ sold to Iraq and the 30 F-16E/F Block 61 sold to the UAE.

On the other hand, there were also cases where F-16 sales had been deliberately blocked by US law makers for a variety of reasons, like Taiwan's repeatedly stalled and now failed attempt to buy advanced F-16 versions since 2001. The most recent example is Pakistan's request for 8 Block 50/52+ F-16s ( two C and six D models ) which the State Department approved in Feb 2016. However the funding from the Foreign Military Financing program to the tune of some $430 million was denied to Pakistan because it allegedly provided a safe haven to terrorists and it's reluctance to target the Haqqani network who attacked US interests across the boarder in Afghanistan. The sale collapsed without the subsidy.

Now, seemingly out of the blue, there is news that India will be offered the most advanced version of the F-16, perhaps as a contender for its long drawn, muddled and already cancelled medium multi-role combat aircraft ( MMRCA ) program which originally was supposed to provide the Indian Air Force ( IAF ) with 126 fighters to replace its Soviet era MiG-21 and MiG-23 fighters. These ancient aircrafts were in such a bad shape and crashes had occurred so frequently that the IAF's MiG-21 had been nicknamed the Widowmaker.

F-16 of the Arizona Air National Guard's 162nd Wing breaking
and discharging flares 8th Apr 2015. USAF Photo

India's Farcical MMRCA Program

Initiated in 2001 with the issuing of the Request for Information ( RFI ), the MMRCA program was about as old as the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program. It was to be an open tender and about $8 billion had been sanctioned by the Indian government for the program. The program was plagued by bureaucracy and repeated delays from the word go and the Request for Proposal ( RFP ) was not released to the bidders until 2007. Then the deadline for the submission of Formal Proposals by the bidders had to be extended due to the complexity of the RFP. The six aircrafts that had been included for evaluation were the Dassault Rafale, the Eurofighter Typhoon, the Lockheed Martin F-16IN Block 60, the Boeing F/A-18E Super Hornet, the SAAB JAS-39 Gripen and the Mikoyan MiG-35.

The MMRCA Fabulous Six : left to right Rafale, Eurofighter, F-16IN, F/A-18E,
JAS-39 and MiG-35. Wikipaedia

Flight evaluations began in late 2009 and were declared completed by late 2010. Only the Rafale and the Eurofighter made it to the final shortlist. Then there was the evaluation of industrial off-set offers, technology transfer value, and total cost based on purchase cost and life cycle cost which involved another bid by the finalists in late 2011, the year the MMRCA was originally supposed to have been fielded!

Finally, the Rafale was declared the winner in Jan 2012 and there was the contract negotiations to be completed. The final value of the MMRCA deal for 126 aircraft was estimated to be between $20 to $25 billion, a huge increase from the $12 billion estimation in 2007. The original plan was for France to supply 18 aircrafts in flyaway condition and have the remaining 108 70% manufactured by Hindustan Aerospace Limited ( HAL ) in India. Contract signing was postponed in 2013 when India discovered it had no budget for the aircrafts due to the cost overruns and had to wait till the next fiscal year. Negotiations then stalled when neither Dassault nor HAL was willing to give guarantees about delivery timelines.

A break through of sorts occurred during Indian Prime Minister Modi's visit to France in 2014 where he agreed to buy 36 Rafale fighter from France directly, in view of the long delays in the MMRCA program which made the acquisition very urgent. Despite the PM's directives, the final contract signing never materialized as Dassault was unwilling to provide quality guarantees of those Rafales to be produced by HAL, rightfully. By mid 2015, the MMRCA program was essentially dead, even when India had been offered the same price that the French Air Force had been getting for the Rafale, a 25% discount from the export price. The Rafale which did not manage to secure a single export order before its selection by the IAF, was propelled from zero to hero and then back to zero again, save the subsequent sales to Egypt and Qatar.

French Air Force Rafale B with external fuel tanks and precision munitions, Mali 2013.
 The Rafale was selected as the winning bid of India's MMRCA program. Photo : USAF

F-16 Block 70/72

This is the latest offering to the Indian Air Force by Lockheed Martin with the latest AESA radar and the most advanced avionics and sensors including Infra-Red Search and Tract ( IRST ) and advanced targeting and navigation systems. Conformal Fuel Tanks ( CFT ) like those found on UAE's F-16E/F Block 61 Desert Falcons are likely part of the package. It is said to be THE ultimate Fighting Falcon, more advanced than anything before it, and developed exclusively for India.

It is not the same aircraft as the F-16IN Super Viper offered during the MMRCA tender. This will be the Mother of All F-16s. It is probably Lockheed Martin's last effort to squeeze more profits from an old product as sales plummet with its impending obsolescence, as the production line looked set to be permanently shut down should no more new orders be gathered in the very near future.

With that aircraft offer came the promise to shift the entire F-16 production line from Fort Worth to India, essentially giving away the knowhow of F-16 construction and also providing India with the power to control future F-16 sales, if any. Pakistan would not be getting anymore new F-16s for sure if India had its way.

F-16F Block 61 with Conformal Fuel Tanks.

F-16 Production Lines Through The Years

There had been five different production lines for the F-16 in as many countries over the years. The main US production line at Fort Worth, Texas, is the perennial facility that produced the first YF-16 prototype, the Full Scale Development aircrafts and close to 80% of all F-16s ever built, over 3500 airframes in all. It had changed its name twice over the production history of the F-16, from General Dynamics to Lockheed when the latter bought over the aviation division of the former, and then again to Lockheed Martin when Lockheed merged with Martin Marietta in 1995. It is the only F-16 production line that is currently still active, though not for much longer.

Foreign production lines included Fokker which built the F-16 for the Netherlands and Norway, Sabca for Belgium and Denmark, Samsung for South Korea and TUSAS Aerospace Industries for Turkey and Egypt. All had completed and ceased production of the F-16. Some, like Fokker are no longer in business after going into receivership.

4500th F-16 Delivery Ceremony at Fort Worth for the Moroccan Air Force,
 3rd Apr 2012. Photo : Lockheed Martin

Shifting All Future F-16 Production To India : A Lower Caste Falcon?

The main problem with off-shoring F-16 production to India, or any other country apart from the United States for that matter, is the assurance of quality. Because India is not America. Workers are paid in Rupees, not Dollars, and a single rupee is equivalent to one and a half US cent.

Compared with products made in other countries such as China, those made in the USA generally have superior quality and durability. Once upon a time not too long ago, when America and Europe were still the manufacturing hub for the world, things were made to last almost a lifetime, like refrigerators that worked for decades without any need for maintenance or repairs. However, let's not generalize but focus on the F-16 itself. That this compact aircraft is well constructed can be seen from the Fleet Report from F-16.net indicating that the active fleet's average service life is 22.44 years and probably growing as delays to its successor the F-35 meant that the service life of the F-16 had to be lengthened, with a small number of airframes having been in service for up to 37 years ( since 1979 )! But plenty of years in service may not mean much if the airframe was under-utilized to stretch its service life. Another parameter to consider would be the Equivalent Flight Hour ( EFH ). The F-16 Block 50 airframe had an EFH rating of 8000 hours and the aircraft would be forcefully retired from active service and perhaps put into storage after coming close to the certified EFH, say upon reaching the 7000th EFH. At least that's what happened in the United States. The latest from Fort Worth was that Lockheed Martin had completed more than 27000 hours of simulated flight time on an F-16 Block 50 aircraft at its Full Scale Durability Test Facility.

The F-16C was tested to 27723 EFH during 32 rounds of comprehensive stress tests over a period of nearly two years. It was subjected to several maximum-load conditions to demonstrate that the airframe was still strong enough to operate within its full operational flight envelope. The aircraft is currently in the teardown inspection and fractography phase of the test program and the data collected will be used to ultimately support extending the F-16 service life certification to at least 12000 EFH or beyond and to assist in the design and verification of SLEP structural modifications for post-Block 40 F-16s.

Susan Ouzts, vice president of Lockheed Martin’s F-16 program, claimed that the successful completion of the full-scale durability testing demonstrated that the F-16 was built to last and she truly had the right to brag, based on what we have seen so far. The question is, can the same better-than-specifications standards of quality and durability be expected for F-16s produced in India or should we lower our expectations? Would anybody other than India want a Made-in-India Falcon? The original is always the best and the gold standard to be benchmarked against!

F-16 discharging flares at the Grand Bay Bombing and Gunnery Range, Moody AFB, GA.
USAF Photo.

 

 

Next, how would the shift of F-16 production to India affect the manufacturing costs? Logically, production costs should decrease with lower labour costs and land costs but that's assuming productivity remains the same whether in the US or in India. It would be a positive development if the unit cost of the latest F-16 versions could be brought down with the shift of production lines, making the Falcon just a little more competitive against a maturing F-35 whose unit price is also gradually improving. Otherwise, who would consider the F-16V at $60 million when the F-35A, a generation more advanced with stealth and sensor fusion, could be had for "just" $25 million more in two year's time?

Then there is the question of availability. With the global active F-16 fleet still standing at almost 3000 aircrafts of all versions, would access to parts be a problem with the shift of production to India? What of Pakistan? India surely would not make it easy for its arch enemy to obtain supplies and parts for the maintenance of its F-16 fleet. Would India comply if ordered by the United States? What if the order books dried up after the production run for India's F-16 Block 70/72 and the entire line was shut down? Should that happen, even the USAF would have to depend on cannibalization of parts from old or retired airframes. The scariest part would be that the shut down could be a commercial decision that the US might not have much say since the manufacturing facilities was not located within its own territory.

Finally, there remained a lot to be said about how the Indians conduct themselves in a commercial transaction. Just looking at the MMRCA program and one can already conclude that it is perhaps best not to bother with ANY Indian business propositions. Because you are just going to be driven up the wall by unreasonable and exasperating demands and in the end all your efforts would still be in vain as the deal would be cancelled one way or another. Unless, of course, if you are Russian. Somehow the Russians could promise the heavens and make the client commit themselves to a deal beyond the point of no return and then go in for the kill and jack up prices for a variety of reasons. China's failed Il-76 and Il-78 acquisition in 2005 at a too good to be true average price of $27 million per aircraft ( 38 aircrafts at $1.045 billion ) and the retrofitting of India's aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya ( ex-Admiral Goshkov ) which was 4 years late and $1.2 billion over-budget are good examples.

INS Vikramaditya ( Ex-Adm Goshkov ) during sea trails.
The conversion to a short take-off barrier arrested recovery carrier was
4 years late and $1.2 billion over budget. Wikipedia 

How Indians Conduct Their Business Deals

From personal first hand experience dealing with Indian businessmen, a cultural perspective :

Firstly, they always claim to be the biggest entity in their respective fields. When negotiating a deal, the prospective businessman would first attempt to make you believe that he or the organization that he represented is the BIGGEST player in the local market with the best distribution or dealership network or the biggest local influence. So he is the big fish you should be doing business with.

He would then ask for quotations or proposals based on HUGE volumes, making the uninitiated believe that he had struck gold. Obviously, large volume discounts would already have been factored in when the quotation or tender price was submitted.

Then, all sorts of reasons, mostly excuses, would be given or possibly fabricated to Par The Prices Down Even Further. The Indians do not seem to give a damn if you could make even a small profit out of the deal. They would drive the prices down so much until you make a loss. Indian business deals are a zero sum game, they win, at your expense, always. Sorry.

Next comes the inevitable reduction in the purchase volume. The original commitment to the astounding number of units could not be honoured for various unforeseeable reasons. Much less would be sort after but still At The Same Volume Discount Price. It doesn't make business sense but they don't care.

Even when the parties have reached an agreement on the final price, there might still be the unusual or unreasonable demands like industrial off-sets and technology transfers or bureaucratic hurdles to cross, failing which the entire deal might just be cancelled. Sometimes they are just terminated, no apparent reasons given. Had the deal gone through, you might soon discover that you really Earned Pretty Next To Nothing for all the frustrations you had to endure throughout the drawn out deal.

To sum it up in a sentence, it's All Words But No / Very Little Action. Don't believe me? Just ask Francois Hollande who went through each phase that I had described for nothing in the end, or Singapore's ST Kinetics who was even accused of bribery in the Indian Army 155mm Howitzer tender, again with no deal ultimately.

A Case Of Seller Beware?

It might sound like a good idea, at least on paper, for Lockheed Martin to offer the most advanced and sophisticated F-16 ever to the Indian Air Force after their repeatedly stalled and now completely failed attempt to procure up to a total of 126 MRCA. After all, the F-16's days are numbered with dwindling sales and impending obsolescence. Why not make a last ditch effort to make more money out of it before the production line shuts down for good? Better still, free up resources to focus on the next generation product, the F-35, by having the manufacturing of the obsolete product done in the client's country where overheads are much lower. The F-16 production line then gets another few extra years of operations during which hopefully more orders might come in, all without burdening the Fort Worth facilities.

For reasons mentioned above, the incredible level of red tape and bureaucracy partly inherited from colonial days and the fact that India is not the most business friendly nation on earth with the implementation of retrospective taxation and all, Lockheed Martin really have to tread carefully on this and do all the due diligence properly. Instead of the usual caveat emptor, we might have an opposite situation, that of seller beware. Otherwise there might be plenty of hand wringing and teeth gnashing to do in the near future.

Don't say I didn't warn you, Buddy.

 

The Quest For Stealth : Japan's Mitsubishi X-2 Experimental Fighter 日本三菱重工 X-2 ステルス戦闘機

 

 

 

 

First Flight of the Mitsubishi X-2 on 22nd Apr 2016.
Photo credit Akira Uekawa

 

 

 

Japan's Stealth Fighter Program

Japan has a nascent stealth fighter program run by the Ministry of Defense's Acquisition Technology And Logistic Agency ( ATLA ) for the Japan Air Self Defense Force ( JASDF ) and it is known as the Advanced Technology Demonstrator - X  ( ATD-X ) Stealth Fighter Program or 先進技術実証機 senshin gijutsu jisshoki. As the name implies, it is a prototype to test advanced concepts in stealth and other aviation technology that can ultimately be utilized by a future generation fighter design.

Not many countries in the world can boast of having independently embarked on stealth aircraft development. Apart from the United States who is the undisputed leader in stealth technology, only Russia, China and Japan can claim to have truly indigenous stealth fighter programs. Being a Tier 1, Tier2 or Tier 3 partner in the Joint Strike Fighter Program does not count since most of the work is done by the Americans.

The Russian effort has resulted in the Sukhoi PAK-FA ( T-50 ) which is about to enter service this year while the Chinese are said to have the J-20 already in low rate initial production ( LRIP ) and are in an advanced stage with their J-31. This article takes a closer look at how the Japanese are fairing.

Replacing JASDF's Ageing Fighters

The JASDF currently operates a fleet of ageing fighter aircrafts including the Vietnam War era F-4EJ Kai, the F-16 derived F-2 and the F-15J. Back in 2005, they were really keen to have the F-22A as the replacement for some of these old aircrafts, but to safeguard its supremacy in stealth technology, the United States decided not to export their most capable stealth fighter to anyone, not even to their most trusted ally Japan. Instead, the Americans have been pushing everybody to accept the second best option, the problem plagued, expensive and long overdue F-35 Joint Strike Fighter ( JSF ). So, in a way, the Japanese had been forced to develop their own stealth fighter. The ATD-X program was launched.

Meanwhile, with the F-4EJ way beyond its sell-by date, and perhaps alarmed by the emergence of Chinese stealth jets, the Japanese finally decided in 2011 to acquire 42 F-35A JSF as an interim measure to replace the Phantoms. 38 of the 42 F-35A will be assembled by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in their Nagoya plant. Mitsubishi will also be involved in testing the JSF's stealth against radars, and the experience gained in the development and manufacturing of the F-35 should contribute towards the development of Japan's indigenous stealth fighter.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries ( MHI 三菱重工 ) is a conglomerate with interests spanning the aerospace, marine, land transport, energy and environment domains. Their products are so diverse that it is almost impossible to list everything. Some of the more prominent ones include the Soryu-class attack submarine, the Mitsubishi Regional Jet ( MRJ ), Atago-class Aegis destroyers, Patriot SAM system and the Type-10 MBT.

All of JASDF's post-war fighter aircrafts had so far been designed or license-produced by MHI, from the F-86 Sabre to the F-104J Starfighter, followed by the F-4EJ Phantom, F-1, F-15J, F-2 and now the F-35.

Of course those who are familiar with military history will tell that Mitsubishi is actually most famous for the long range carrier-borne fighter known as the A6M Zero or the Reisen (零戦). This legendary fighter was designed by aeronautical engineer Jiro Horikoshi ( 堀越二郎 ), and its performance was unmatched by any western combat aircraft at the beginning of World War II, attaining a kill ratio of 12:1. It was extensively used by the Imperial Japanese Navy on the raid on Pearl Harbour in Dec 1941, an event that marked the beginning of the Pacific War.




1:72 scale model of the Mitsubishi A6M2b Zero ( Type 21 ).
 Photo : Hasegawa Model Co.

So, it is quite obvious that MHI has been a key player when it came to Japanese fighter design and production for close to a century, stretching back to the pre-war years.
　

 

Mitsubishi X-2 Stealth Fighter

The X-2 is a single-seat, twin-engine, thrust-vectoring, low-observable technology demonstrator. It has a shape similar to other stealth aircrafts like the F-22 and the PAK-FA with a flat looking body and two outward canting vertical stabilizers. The air intake ducts were shaped to conceal the engine fan blades from radar waves and access panels have serrated edges. In fact it looked like a miniature version of the F-22.

It was initially launched as the ATD-X program following the failure by Japan to acquire an export version of the F-22, the project was under the jurisdiction of the Technical Research and Development Institute ( TRDI ) which was the predecessor of the current ATLA.

Anechoic chamber tests carried out in France in 2005 on a full scale ATD-X model suggested that it had a radar cross section ( RCS ) equivalent to an object the with a size somewhere between that of an insect and a bird. These electromagnetic spectrum reflection and absorption tests were originally intended to be done at a USAF test facility but approval was not granted.

In the spring of 2006, a radio-controlled 1 : 5 scale model of the ATD-X constructed out of carbon fibre reinforced plastic with a length of 3m and width of 2m and a weight of 45kg was first flown at the Multi-Purpose Aerospace Park in the Taikicho District of Hokkaido ( 北海道大樹町 ). A total of 4 such remotely controlled aircrafts were eventually constructed and 40 test flights were conducted until Nov 2007.

Subsequently, the ATD-X program was given the full go ahead in 2007. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries was appointed the main contractor. As usual the early developments were cloaked in secrecy. The stealth prototype was commonly referred to as the Shinshin ( spirit of the heart ).

In order to keep developmental cost low, the X-2 reuses some components from previously developed aircraft types. This included the canopy and the ejection seat from the Kawasaki T-4 intermediate jet trainer which itself was taken from the Mitsubishi F-1 strike fighter. The main and rear landing gears were taken from the Mitsubishi T-2, the jet trainer developed from the F-1.

By 2009 39.4 billion yen had already been invested. 90% of the X-2's components are indigenously manufactured in Japan. Mitsubishi manufactures the fuselage and landing gears, Kawasaki the cockpit and canopy, Fuji the main wing and tail stabilizers, IHI the engines, in total about 220 Japanese aerospace companies supplying several hundred thousand different parts and components.

The ATD-X prototype was officially unveiled on 28th Jan 2016 by which time it had been given the designation X-2.

Advance technology that the ATD-X will test and evaluate includes the usual stuff one would expect for a 5th generation stealth fighter and more :

Low observable or stealth technology, like radar absorbing coating and materials. The body of the aircraft is said to be covered with a layer of new composite material of ceramic and silicon carbide capable of absorbing radar waves. The canopy itself would be emission-proofed with its own special coating.

Second generation AESA radar. Japan is the first country to have an AESA radar installed on a production combat fighter the Mitsubishi F-2 and that was almost twenty years ago. Although initially plagued with problems, the technology had matured and the experience gained by Japan would no doubt be a useful contribution towards the design of a new generation AESA radar.

Thrust vectoring and super-maneuverability. Each engine nozzle have a trio of unusual paddle contraptions similar to what was seen on the German-American X-31 experimental aircraft for vectoring engine thrust.

Indigenously developed high-thrust low by-pass turbofan capable of super-cruising - sustained super-sonic flight without the involvement of afterburners. Some of the experience gained in developing the XF5-1 engine for the X-2 had already been applied to the production F-7-10 engine used by the P-1 maritime patrol aircraft.

Fly-By-Light advance fibre optic flight control system, likely an improved version over the first generation control system used in the P-1. This Integrated Flight Propulsion Control ( IFPC ) links flight control with nozzle and thrust control to enable some form of automatic recovery from combat damage.

Next generation Infra-Red Search and Tract ( IRST ) and radio frequency sensors as well as Head Up Display and Helmet Mounted Display technology.

Advance Electronic Support Measures ( ESM ) and Electronic Countermeasures ( ECM ) suites. Likely electronic attack capability.

The specifications for the X-2 are as follows :


Length : 14.2m

Wingspan 9.1m

Height : 4.5m

Weight : 9.7 tons

Engine : IHI XF5-1 Afterburning Turbofan x 2

 

 

Thrust vectoring paddles of the super-maneuverable X-31
experimental aircraft. Wikipaedia

IHI XF5-1 Afterburning Turbofan. Wikipaedia 

 

 

A 1:14 scale transonic (遷音速) wind tunnel model of the X-2,
also known as the Shinshin ( 心神 ), on display at the
 JASDF Hamamatsu Air Park taken during my visit
on 11th Jun 2016.

 

 

 

 

First Flight

Since the X-2's official unveiling on 28th Jan 2016, it had attained several important milestones. Low speed ground taxiing test was carried out on 11th Feb followed later by high speed full afterburner acceleration test on the runway.

After several delays due to technical issues and poor weather, the X-2 finally took to the skies for the very first time on 22nd Apr 2016. At 0847 hours local time, the experimental aircraft took off from Nagoya Airport in Aichi Prefecture, flew for 26 minutes and landed at the JASDF Gifu Air Base about 50km away at 0913 hours. The X-2 was accompanied by at least two chase planes, a F-2 and a F-15. During the brief, uneventful flight, the X-2 attained a maximum altitude of 12000 feet and a maximum speed of 370km/h. It underwent simple tests like ascend, descend and circling operations after entering the designated test flight zone. It also made a few simulated landings in the air before a final safe touch down. The MHI test pilot subsequently described the aircraft's handling as extremely stable and that it performed just as the simulator training had predicted. The Ministry of Defense considered the first flight a successful test in their press release ( in Japanese ).

The second flight of the X-2 took place on 18th May 2016 and was again rather uneventful. It was supposed to accelerate to a higher speed and retract its landing gears.

In the next two years or so, if all goes well, the X-2 will be performing another 50 test flights for more in depth studies of its aerodynamic and stealth characteristics. After that, Japan can decide whether it wants to pursue this stealth fighter venture on its own or if it wishes to partner other countries to develop the next generation fighter for the JASDF.




The X-2 during its maiden flight on 22nd Apr 2016. JASDF Photo

 

The X-2 during its maiden flight on 22nd Apr 2016. JASDF

 

The X-2 accompanied by a F-2 chase plane during its maiden flight. JASDF

 

 

 

Video of maiden flight.

 

 

Another video of first flight. 

 

 

Video of second flight

 

 

 

The Mitsubishi F-3

The Japanese hope that the technology used in the ATD-X / X-2 will eventually lead to the development and fielding of a new generation indigenous stealth fighter by 2030. This next generation fighter will presumably be designated the F-3, as the previous generations of fighters were designated the F-1 and the F-2.

The F-3 will likely be the replacement for both the F-15J and the slightly newer F-2. The F-15J began its service with the JASDF in 1984 and celebrated its 30th anniversary 2 years ago. They would have served 46 years in the JASDF by 2030. The F-2 entered service in 2000 and would have served 30 years by the end of the next decade.

Physically, the F-3 will have to be a lot bigger than the X-2 as it would have to carry loads of fuel to achieve the long endurance that the JASDF required to defend their island chains. The bigger airframe will also provide for a large internal weapons bay ( which the X-2 lacks ) for at least six large missiles and of course, bigger and more powerful engines.

You can watch the computer generated animation of the F-3A and the F-3E Strike Shinshin attacking a Chinese Carrier Battle Group in a sea battle in the year 2035, shooting down J-15s with cannons, AAM-4 and AAM-5 missiles and sinking two aircraft carriers with ASM-3 anti-ship missiles. Yes, go kick some Chinese Ass. Just don't expect the final F-3E, wherever that came from, to be shaped like what was depicted in the movie, with delta wings and without vertical stabilizers like the B-2 Spirit.

Japanese and Chinese carrier battle groups slug it out in this imaginary sea battle in 2035

Failure Is Not An Option?

Just like ship hulls, no airframe would last forever. Ageing aircrafts would have to be retired and replaced when they reach their rated flight hour limit. Japan's frontline combat fighters face an ever increasing operational tempo in recent years with record numbers of airspace violation incidences from Chinese aircrafts in the south and Russian aircrafts in the north. In FY2015 ( 1 Apr 2015 to 31 Mar 2016 ) MOD figures indicated 571 scrambles against Chinese aircrafts alone and 873 scrambles in total. At this rate, the F-15s and the F-2 may well have to be replaced even earlier than projected.





Latest cumulative JASDF scramble data from 1958 ( Showa 33 ) to 2016 ( Heisei 28 )
released on 5th Jul including figures for 1Q2016 ( red bar ), a record breaking 281 sorties.
Vertical axis indicates total number of scrambles while horizontal axis indicates the year.

So there is a sense of urgency for the X-2 stealth fighter program to progress in a timely manner and to culminate in the form of Japan's next generation fighter by the year 2030. Failure is really not an option.

The Japanese MOD had already issued a request for information on the next generation fighter to replace the F-2 from foreign and domestic aerospace companies, to be submitted by 5th Jul 2016. A tender worth an estimated $40 billion for about a hundred aircrafts will be launched sometime this month with MHI, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, SAAB and the Eurofighter Consortium either already invited or expressing interest. It is believed that three options existed, buying or upgrading an existing design ( F-15J? ), buying a new aircraft type from a foreign supplier and finally a domestically developed aircraft, likely with the help of foreign partners. A decision on the tender will be made by 2018 and the aircraft likely to enter service at the end of the next decade.

Currently, perhaps only two things could derail the X-2 program and prevent the development of an indigenous F-3. If the United States would come to its senses and somehow not only restart the production of the F-22 Raptor but agree to export it to Japan at a reasonable price, that could kill the X-2 and the F-3. If the F-35A could overcome its teething problems in short order and morph into the 5th generation fighter that it was supposed to be, coupled with a significant decrease in price with the commencement of volume production, that too could affect the X-2. In truth, neither of these hypothetical scenarios look likely to happen in the near term.

If and when the X-2 program is brought to fruition in the form of an operational 5th generation stealth fighter, it might just be the most significant weapon system developed in post-war Japan. And that's because at least for the free world, it would break the monopoly of the F-35 as the only option for an export stealth fighter.

To many Japanese, the X-2 is a symbol of hope that Japan could once again produce a world class fighter and be a dominant player in the aviation industry, just like it did 80 years ago with the Mitsubishi A6M Zero. That dream will progressively become closer to reality with each successful test flight of the X-2. Go forth and soar with the winds. Gambatte X-2!