Showing posts with label Guam. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Guam. Show all posts

Wednesday, 8 April 2020

COVID-19 : Radical Changes For Naval Operations And Future Ship Designs Needed




Coronavirus by TP Heinz via Pixabay




As I write, the coronavirus pandemic which began as a mysterious respiratory illness in Wuhan City of China late last year has now engulfed the whole world with more than 1.4 million infected and more than 82000 deaths. The disease is officially known as COVID-19 ( coronavirus disease 2019 ) and the virus responsible for the illness is the SARS-CoV-2 ( Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 ).

Symptoms of the infection can range from asymptomatic to being a flu-like illness with malaise, fever, cough and dry throat, to severe respiratory distress requiring critical care. Being a viral illness meant that there is no effective treatment against it and it is largely left to the immune system to deal with the infection. Any medical intervention is therefore limited to providing life support and preventing further spread of the contagion.

Since the virus spread by means of droplets and surface contact, conditions of crowding and close person-to-person contact would facilitate its transmission. It was therefore not surprising that in Jan 2020 the Diamond Princess, a cruise ship which carried a total of 3711 passengers and crew, became a hotbed for COVID-19 transmission. It was quarantined at the Japanese port city of Yokohama since early February but because of poor, inadequate and perhaps ineffective infection control onboard, the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 eventually reached 712 with 567 passengers and 145 crew members infected. 12 had died.



The crowded pilot house of the Gerald R Ford ( CVN-78 ) during replenishment-at-sea.
 It is impossible to achieve any meaningful physical distancing when
working and living onboard a ship. USN Photo



Now the living conditions onboard a warship is not much different from those onboard a commercial vessel. Space is always a premium on a ship. Confining a large group of people to a small area for an extended duration is the prime recipe for a highly contagious disease to spread. During a pandemic, all ships, merchantman or man-of-war, are simply floating incubators, epidemiological time bombs waiting to explode. With the news that the nuclear-powered attack carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt ( CVN-71 ) has been ravaged by the coronavirus and is now anything but war capable, we know that even the world's mightiest navy is not immune to this health menace. Is there anything that can be done to minimize the risk of a COVID-19 outbreak onboard a warship? Of course there are, but it would mean many of our traditional habits and the way we conduct our businesses and carry out our missions would have to be modified or changed drastically. Perhaps every future ship design would have to include special areas for medical treatment and isolation and even berthing arrangements and living quarters have to be redesigned.

As a case study we can look to the USS Theodore Roosevelt to appreciate what a tiny virus can do to a large warship in a matter of days.





The USS Theodore Roosevelt at the South China Sea with the
America Expeditionary Strike Group 15th Mar 2020. USN Photo.


The Grounding Of A Carrier



The Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group ( CSG ) comprising of the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and its surface and submarine escorts including the guided missile cruiser USS Bunker Hill ( CG-52 ) and several destroyers departed San Diego on 17th Jan 2020 for its Indo-Pacific deployment.

The CSG arrived at Apra Harbor, Guam, on 6th Feb after sailing across the Pacific Ocean. We can assume the sailors were granted their well deserved shore leave on Guam and they had also participated in various community relations activities over that weekend, such as interacting with young kids from a school, clearing and cleaning up a trail in a nature park, repainting of a veteran's memorial, and some other miscellaneous repairing and rebuilding projects.

It then sailed westwards and arrived at Da Nang on 5th Mar to commemorate the 25th anniversary of the normalization of US-Vietnam diplomatic relations, becoming the second US aircraft carrier to make a port call in Vietnam since the fall of Saigon in 1975. As it was a high profile visit, the CSG was met by a whole host of Vietnamese and US government and military officials including Adm. John C. Aquilino, commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, and U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam Daniel Kritenbrink. Needless to say, there were also plenty of functions and receptions for the senior ranks to attend both ashore on onboard ship. For the lower ranks, the usual community relations projects were unavoidable. Somehow the military just love these social out reach programs and they can never have enough of them.



Reception at Da Nang 5th Mar 2020 : Ambassador Daniel Kritenbrink
with COMPACFLT Adm John Aquilino (R),
COMCARSTRKGRU9 RAdm Stuart Baker (L)
and Capt Brett Crozier ( extreme L ). USN Photo.


Roosevelt ship crew dancing with locals at Dorothea's Project Legacies
Charity Center Da Nang 6th Mar 2020. USN Photo.



Military dignitaries from the Socialist Republic of Vietnam
 visited the carrier on 7th Mar 2020. USN Photo.


After Da Nang, on 15th Mar the CSG deployed to the South China Sea and sailed with the America Expeditionary Strike Group and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit as a combined Expeditionary Strike Force. On 18th Mar the CSG even managed some joint exercise with aircrafts like the F-15C from the US Pacific Air Forces operating out of Kadena AFB in Okinawa with a B-52H thrown in.



Exercising with the Air Force in the Philippine Sea 18th Mar 2020. USN Photo.



By 24th Mar however, the first cases of coronavirus infection has been reported among 3 ship crew onboard the Teddy Roosevelt. The number of the infected increased to 8 just a day later. Most of the infected only showed mild symptoms but they were flown off the aircraft carrier to the US Naval Hospital Guam for further tests, evaluation and quarantine. To fight the worsening outbreak, the US Navy had by then ordered the diversion of the carrier back to Guam and to have all of her 4845 sailors and airmen tested for the coronavirus. Acting Secretary of the Navy Thomas Modly insisted that the carrier was still fully operational despite the disease outbreak but we known otherwise. How can a carrier be combat ready when it is tied at pier-side?


Captain Brett Elliott Crozier, USN. CO USS Theodore Roosevelt.
Photo : Wikipedia


Unfortunately for the Teddy Roosevelt, the number of infected sailors just kept increasing exponentially. By the time the carrier docked at Guam on 27th Mar the figure had risen to 25 infected. Soon after it became 36, and then 70. Worried about the health and safety of the sailors and airmen onboard the carrier, the commanding officer Captain Brett Crozier wrote a memo to the naval high command pleading for help to contain the outbreak, specifically to authorize the removal of about 4000 ship crew to a land based facility for two weeks of quarantine while a skeletal crew remain shipboard to run and maintain critical systems and deep clean the ship. The problem was Guam being an island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean did not have means to quarantine 4000 people on land. The captain's memo was somehow leaked to the San Francisco Chronicle and before anyone knew, the entire world had learnt about the Roosevelt's predicament.


Aerial view of Apra Harbor, Guam with USS America (LHA-6)
at pier side 21 Mar 2020. USN Photo.

 As a result of his plea and the publicity it generated, arrangements have been made to transfer about three thousand sailors ashore for quarantine. Not all could be evacuated as a skeletal crew had to remain onboard to operate critical systems that could not be shut down, like the Roosevelt's two Westinghouse A4W pressurized water nuclear reactors. Security and fire fighting details and a few hundred ship crew will have to remain onboard to deep clean the carrier which was estimated to take about 10 days. One thousand had left the ship on 1st Apr, with more to follow. It generated a lot of unhappiness among the local population of Guam who were rightly afraid that the sailors would introduce the coronavirus to their island.

So far all the infected personnel are medically stable and do not require hospitalization, ventilator support or critical care. Nobody from the Roosevelt has yet died from the infection but the captain's actions would eventually cost him his job. On 2nd Apr Acting Secretary of the Navy Thomas Modly relieved Capt Brett Crozier of his command citing loss of confidence and lack of leadership in times of crisis. He left his ship amidst a rousing send off by the ship crew, who clearly believed that their commanding officer had acted with their safety and well being at heart. By then the number of infected had already reached 114.



Seabees from the 1st and 5th Naval Mobile Construction Battalion
with vehicles to transport sailors to shore based quarantine facilities
3rd Apr 2020. USN Photo.


COMSEVENTHFLT Vice Admiral Bill Merz visits barracks
housing quarantined sailors at Guam 5th Apr 2020. USN Photo.


By 5th Apr Defense Secretary Mark Esper told CNN there were 155 infected. Even the poor captain himself had come down with the infection and is currently in quarantine. He had shown symptoms before he left his command.

The latest twist of this saga was that Thomas Modly himself was forced to resign as the acting secretary of the Navy on 7th April, a day after he described Capt Crozier as " too naïve or too stupid " to be in command, in a speech given during his visit to the aircraft carrier. The abrupt manner of Capt Crozier's dismissal as the commanding officer without going through a board of inquiry and due process was also a sticking point among naval personnel. The latest infected numbers on 7th Apr stood at 230 and it will surely go up in the coming weeks.*

As anyone could see, in about slightly more than a week, there were more than two hundred personnel who contracted the virus and the aircraft carrier is effectively non-operational being confined to port with more than half its compliment disembarked and on quarantine. We might never know how the virus first infected the ship, but a common assumption was from the 5 day port visit to Da Nang ( 5th - 9th Mar ). With the bulk of its crew now in quarantine, I suspect the Roosevelt's COVID-19 cases will peak in two weeks though new cases will continue to emerge sporadically for several more weeks since not all ship crew could be quarantined at the same time.

The good news is that since most of the ship's compliment are young and presumably healthy, most of Roosevelt's COVID-19 cases should recover with hopefully minimal complications. And once these people recover, they should have immunity against the coronavirus and they can even be deployed to provide care for their COVID-19 stricken compatriots without the need for those cumbersome personal protective equipment! They can also be a reliable donor source for the promising but not yet FDA-approved convalescent plasma therapy where the neutralizing antibodies against the coronavirus present in the plasma of recovered patients is transfused to help the acutely infected recover. In the unlikely event that a huge proportion of the ship crew eventually acquires the infection and the herd immunity threshold ( HIT ) is reached, the rest of the uninfected members will then be protected. The problem is this coronavirus outbreak is so new that nobody really knows what its HIT is. For measles, the HIT is between 90 to 95% to achieve herd immunity. Other less contagious diseases have lower HIT.

* 10 Apr - infected ship crew now hits 416. 3170 tested negative with 1164 results still pending. One sailor in ICU.

* 11 Apr - 92% ship crew tested. 550 positive, 3673 negative. 3696 moved ashore.

* 13 Apr - 585 infected. One death.

* 15 Apr - 615 infected. Majority asymptomatic ( 350 ). Chief Petty Officer Charles Thacker identified as sailor who died.

* 23 Apr - 840 positive. 4098 negative. 4234 moved ashore. 88 recovered. Tests completed.

* 28 Apr - USN COVID-19 Update website says 940 active cases, 29 recovered. Change in reporting parameter means only those with 2 successive negative tests count as recovered.


Infection Control Measures For COVID-19


To prevent personnel from acquiring and spreading COVID-19 onboard warships especially during deployments of prolonged duration, navies have to completely change the usual way peacetime naval operations are conducted.

As COVID-19 numbers keep rising in every country which can only mean there is sustained local / community transmission of the coronavirus, it is inevitable that some military personnel would have been infected as well. Whereas the ground and air force personnel could be immediately isolated and sent home or quarantined at a designated facility when found to be infected, the same arrangements could be impossible for naval personnel during a major deployment. Here are some changes that can potentially make a difference in the prevention of contagion onboard deployed ships.


Defer Unnecessary Trainings And Deployments


Just as the general public had been told to avoid and defer all unnecessary travels, the navy should also limit their fleet deployments to those that are of absolute necessity. All training deployments should be deferred until the pandemic has run its course. All chest-thumping / show-of-force type operations like those Freedom of Navigation operations should cease immediately. Training exercises can be postponed. If it is about saving lives like search and rescue missions, medical relief missions for the pandemic, or if the sovereignty or survival of the nation is at stake, like nuclear deterrence missions, proceed with caution.


Pre-Deployment Quarantine


The incubation period ( time between exposure to the development of symptoms ) of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is said to be between 2 to 7 days with a mean ( average ) of 4 days. In some cases the incubation period can be as long as 14 days. In order to ensure all embarked ship crew are healthy and not carrying or incubating the virus, they should be put to 14 days of pre-deployment quarantine. It should preferably be done at a base facility where there are rooms with attached toilet and shower, one individual to each room. There should be daily temperature checks and the monitoring of symptoms.

Any individual who develops fever or flu-like symptoms during this 14 day isolation period will have to be thoroughly checked for COVID-19 infection. Only if the individual is well and symptom free at the end of the 14 days can he or she be allowed to embark for deployment.


Vessel Preparation For Deployment


While the ship crew are under pre-deployment quarantine, the usual routine pre-sailing ship preparation will perhaps have to be undertaken by their squadron mates. Fuel, ammunition and food supplies have to be loaded, preferably in quantities sufficient to last the entire deployment if practicable. Such stores should be sanitized prior to loading onboard ship with the appropriate method, disinfectant spray, ultraviolet light etc. Medical supplies including personal protective equipment, medications, diagnostic equipment will have to be catered for. The ship should be deep cleaned prior to the embarkation of those who passed quarantine.


Special Measures When Underway


Ship crew should refrain from group gatherings like briefings and meetings as much as possible. They should try to maintain a physical distance of at least a metre from each other if practicable. Meal times should be staggered to avoid having large groups in the mess hall. The use of recreational facilities like the gym and ward rooms should similarly be regulated to maintain physical distancing.

Since ship systems need to be manned continuously once underway, the crew would have been organized into different teams to work in shifts. Members of different teams should also refrain from mingling with each other after-shift so that in case any team member is down with an infection and the entire team has to be in quarantine, at least the other teams would not be affected.

Another important area to note is movement of personnel between different vessels of the task group should be prohibited. Similarly transfer of personnel in and out of each ship should also be limited to medical or other emergencies only.


Avoiding Unnecessary Port Calls


This will be tough as port calls are frequently the highlight of every deployment. Who does not like the opportunity to visit a foreign city and experience a different culture even if it is only for a few days? Many things happen during port calls as ships replenish their depleted food supplies and take on fuel if necessary. The host country might organize a reception ashore for the ship's company and then the ship will have to reciprocate by hosting a shipboard reception during which lots of guests and ship officers and crew will mingle and party. There is no doubt that such functions are standard naval protocol and can foster the development of bilateral ties, friendship and camaraderie. They are also potential hotbeds for COVID-19 transmission and should be banned altogether during this pandemic.

It is also a common practice for navies all over the world to conduct community relations events or community outreach programs whenever the ship docks at a foreign port. So visiting some orphanage or old folk's home, repainting a school, cleaning up a beach or a park .... becomes mandatory for the lower ranks. These activities can frequently bring real benefits to the local communities, touch lives and also hopefully benefit the participants by accentuating their sense of humility seeing and serving the less fortunate. Again, during an epidemic or pandemic, these relations building activities should cease completely. The opportunity to serve will always remain and can be engaged again after the disease outbreak is under control.

For short deployments ships should therefore be as self-sufficient as possible and avoid port calls altogether. For longer deployments, port visits should be limited to taking on and off-loading essentials and no shore leave should be granted. No visitors should be allowed onboard the ship unless of absolute necessity, like the harbor pilot to ensure safe navigation into and out of the port. Even then keep a safe physical distance and provide the pilot with a surgical mask if he is not already wearing one and remind him not to touch anything. And don't forget to clean up the bridge after he leaves.


Good Personal Hygiene


Perhaps the single most important measure against the spread of the coronavirus is the practice of good personal hygiene. An infected person will be shedding a lot of the virus through the nasal mucous and phlegm from the throat. When he or she sneezes or coughs, droplets can land on surfaces or be directly inhaled by others in close proximity. An infected person's hands will be also likely be heavily contaminated with the virus if he or she wipes the nose without subsequently washing the hands.

With the understanding of how the virus spreads, frequent hand washing with soap or the use of disinfecting hand rubs are therefore the best defense against getting infected. Keep your hands clean and try not to touch your face or rub your eyes because that's how the virus enters your body - through the eyes ( conjunctiva ), the nose or the mouth via your dirty hands.

Wash your hands before you have your meal and also after you have visited the toilet. Coronaviruses can be shed through the feces of an infected person. Sometimes viral RNA can be detected in the feces long after they have recovered from the illness, though it could be just viral genetic material and not the viable virus itself. So shared heads / communal toilets must be kept clean. Common areas should be regularly cleaned with disinfectants.





Masks


There is now sufficient evidence to suggest that pre-symptomatic spread of the coronavirus can occur. Universal mask wearing might be a good idea for all personnel onboard the ship for self protection and for protecting others should one fall sick and unknowingly spread the virus during the incubation phase. Exemptions can be made for those in anti-flash gear.

A properly made disposable surgical mask has a waterproof middle layer that prevents respiratory droplets from a sick person from escaping and infecting other people. An N95 type respirator is not necessary for non-medical use. Not only are some types of N95 mask not fluid resistant, they are also very uncomfortable to wear and may result in the wearer touching the face much more frequently to adjust the uncomfortable mask resulting in higher risk of infection.

Masks alone cannot prevent COVID-19 infection and must be used in combination with other measures for infection control. Between them, hand washing and physical distancing are still more important.

There is currently a worldwide shortage of masks, surgical as well as N95, as the pandemic rages. Most mask manufacturing countries have restricted and then banned their export altogether with the hope of keeping whatever is available for themselves. Since we are nowhere even near the peak of the pandemic, mask shortages will be the order of the day for many many months to come. Conserve your masks and save your stock for later when shit really hits the ceiling. Quartermasters and medics guard your mask supplies like gold and ration them carefully.

Unless you have an unlimited supply, do not discard your mask after a single use like what most would do before. Instead, keep the disposable mask clean and you can reuse it for 2 or maybe 3 days. When removing the mask for later use, remember not to touch the outer, potentially contaminated surface of the mask. Hold it by the straps and keep it in a clean zip lock bag. If surgical masks are not available, studies have shown that even reusable / washable cloth masks can be better than no mask at all.



Impact On Future Ship Designs


As the world population continue to grow and our insatiable demand for resources drive us towards large scale exploitation of nature, human exposure to wild animals will increase exponentially and with it the number of zoonotic diseases. A zoonosis is an infectious disease caused by a pathogen that has jumped from its usual animal host to humans. Some recent examples include Marburg Haemorrhagic Fever ( 1967 W. Germany ), Ebola virus disease ( 1976 Sudan, Congo), Hanta virus pulmonary syndrome ( 1993 Four Corners, US ), H5N1 Avian Influenza ( 1997 Hong Kong ), Nipah virus disease ( 1998 Malaysia ), SARS ( 2002 Hong Kong ), MERS ( 2012 Middle East ) and COVID-19. These emerging infectious diseases frequently cause severe symptoms and carry with them high mortality rates.

To cater for these ever frequent disruptive epidemics, naval architects should design future warships with special considerations for disease prevention and treatment. Living quarters and work spaces could be bigger. Hot bunking should be a thing of the past. Every sailor should have his or her own room, even if it means it has to be capsule hotel style, small and cramped. The current bunking arrangement of segregation by rank, that is, Officer's mess, Petty Officer and Chief Petty Officer's mess, Junior Rank's mess, should be reviewed. It involves too much movement and intermingling of ship personnel. Instead ship crew should be divided into watch keeping teams and personnel from the same team bunk together, regardless of rank. So a ship can have several such sleeping quarters for different watch keeping teams and each should have its own heads, shower, laundry facilities, mini pantry, recreation area and maybe even a mini gym.

The ship should have dedicated rooms for medical treatment and isolation in case of a disease outbreak onboard the ship. Each isolation room should have its own toilet and sink so that the crew member in isolation need not get out of the room to wash or relieve himself. This requirement can be tough to meet on a small platform like Singapore's Victory-class missile corvette which is 62m long and has a displacement of 595 tonnes, but nobody says you should build designs like these anymore.

The future ship should also have advanced communications links between different compartments to transmit real time video and audio signals to reduce the need for the ship crew to physically gather for meetings and briefings.

The ultimate goal could perhaps be to eliminate the human crew altogether. If we can have a frigate-sized unmanned surface vessel that is remotely controlled and unmanned droid-carrying amphibious assault ships, we will not have to worry about diseases and outbreaks. In the event of war, there will be no casualties to worry about either! A Little far fetched but this day may arrive sooner than we think.

And lastly, for our readers whose town or city might be in lock down due to the COVID-19 pandemic, a gentle reminder to STAY HOME and help flatten the epidemiological curve in your country.






















Thursday, 11 August 2016

No F-35 For Singapore ... For Now .. And What's The Deal With Guam?




F-35B of the 501st Marine Fighter Attack Training Squadron ( VMFAT-501 ),
 MCAS Beaufort, South Carolina.
Photo taken on 19th Mar 2015 Lockheed Martin  



State Dinner : What's On The Menu?



At the invitation of the President of the United States Barack Obama, Prime Minister of the Republic of Singapore Lee Hsien Loong made an official visit to the US to celebrate 50 years of diplomatic relations and to further enhance the bilateral strategic partnership that the two countries had enjoyed so far. The state visit had taken place from 31 July to 5th August 2016. The two leaders had many things to discuss, from boosting trade and commerce links to strengthening people-to-people ties through exchange scholarships and implementation of trusted traveler programs, addressing regional and global challenges including climate change, global terrorism, freedom of navigation, and last but not least, enhancing security and defense cooperation.



Singapore PM Lee Hsien Loong and President Obama at the White House
 2nd Aug 2016. Photo : US Embassy



A state dinner at the White House was also hosted in Singapore's honor on 2nd Aug 2016, the 11th so far by the Obama Administration in his eight years in office. Singapore was the fifth Asian country to receive this honor, after India, China, Japan and South Korea. During the black tie event attended by 200 prominent guests including Vice President Joe Biden, Secretary of State John Kerry and Secretary of Defense Ash Carter. PM Lee returned the honor by unveiling a Singapore cultivated orchid hybrid named after the US President and the First Lady, Dendrobium Barack and Michelle Obama, to mark the 50th anniversary of bilateral relations. It is a cross between a hybrid native to Hawaii where Mr. Obama was born, the D. Pink Lips, and a Singapore hybrid known as D. Sunplaza Park.


The Dendrobium Barack and Michelle Obama
( D. Pink Lips x D. Sun Plaza )
 is a robust and free flowering orchid hybrid named in the honor of
the POTUS and the First Lady celebrating 50 years of
bilateral relations between the US and Singapore.
Photo : MCI via Straits Times


With bilateral ties at an all time high, as they should be, and knowing that Singapore has been interested in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter for the longest time yet is always in no hurry to make the final decision, the question that many will ask is, was the F-35 on the State Dinner menu? Could a possible F-35 foreign military sale ( FMS ) to Singapore be Obama's last hurrah in his lame duck period?

As usual, some background information to provide the reader with the right perspective is always appropriate.



State Dinner Menu 2nd Aug 2016 :
Maryland Blue Crab, American Wagyu Beef, Local Tomato Salad
and Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter?!
Original Image Singapore Embassy in Washington DC





US and Singapore : 50 Years of Diplomatic Relations And More




Fifty one years ago, on 9th Aug 1965, the tiny South East Asian nation of Singapore was born in anguish, having been unceremoniously kicked out of the Federation of Malaysia like an unwanted child. Before that, it had been a British crown colony since 1819, until it achieved self-governance in 1959 and subsequently joined the Malaysian Federation in 1963.

As a small island nation without natural resources and at that time surrounded by potentially hostile neighbours, Singapore needed friends, and fast. Friends whom it could learn from, trade with, garner political support and who could lend a helping hand when it was needed. It was a matter of survival.

And among the first few countries to recognize Singapore as a sovereign country after it declared its independence from the Federation of Malaysia was the good old United States of America under the leadership of President Lyndon B. Johnson. Official recognition came on 11th Aug 1965 in a letter from Secretary of State Dean Rusk to Singaporean Foreign Minister Sinnathamby Rajaratnam, essentially the day after independence, taking into consideration that the US lies across the International Date Line on the other side of the Pacific.

The establishment of diplomatic relations and the American embassy came the following year, on 4th April 1966, with Richard H Donald as Chargé d’Affaires ad interim. The rest that followed, was half a century of ever deepening friendship and thrust, of mutual understanding, respect and admiration.


US - Singapore Diplomatic Relations 50th Anniversary. Source : US Embassy


Informal relations between the United States and Singapore had began even earlier, way back in the 19th century when US merchants engaged in the China trade began to visit the port on their way to and from China. As Singapore became one of the most important ports in the region, US-Singaporean interaction increased and the first American representative to Singapore, Joseph Balestier ( 1788 - 1858 ) was appointed on 4th July 1836 when the US established a consulate. He was a merchant and plantation owner whose wife Maria was the daughter of Paul Revere, silversmith, industrialist and Patriot in the American Revolution of the midnight ride fame. Their legacy endures in Singapore today, with an entire neighborhood, a high school and road named after Balestier. A beautiful church bell made in the foundry of her father was donated by Maria Balestier to the St Andrew's Church once signaled the evening curfew now rests in the Singapore History Gallery of the National Museum. It is the only Revere bell outside the United States.


The Revere Bell at the National Museum of Singapore.
Inscription reads : Revere, Boston 1843.
Presented to St Andrew's Church, Singapore,
by Mrs Maria Revere Balestier of Boston,
United States of America. Photo : Wikipedia

 
Today, the US is the biggest source of foreign direct investment in Singapore. Over 3700 US companies are located in Singapore and a growing number of Singapore companies are establishing themselves in the US. The US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement, the first such US agreement in Asia and now in its twelve year is a reference agreement that has shaped subsequent bilateral and multilateral FTAs in the region, including the high profile Trans-Pacific Partnership ( TPP ). Students from both countries study at each other's schools from elementary to post-graduate levels and beyond. The Singapore Armed Forces stations and trains approximately 1000 of its personnel annually in the US. Similarly, the US regularly deploys aircrafts and ships on a rotational basis to Singapore, contributing to the stability of the Asian Pacific region.  

 

The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Program



The US$379 billion F-35 Joint Strike Fighter ( JSF ) program is without doubt the world's most expensive weapons program. It aims to produce a 5th generation multirole stealth fighter in three variants to replace a whole host of legacy fighters and attack aircrafts in the United States Air Force ( USAF ), United States Navy ( USN ), the United States Marine Corps ( USMC ) and some of its closest allies. The program's international partners includes the UK, Italy, the Netherlands, Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway and Turkey. Israel and Singapore are Security Cooperative Participants.

Apart from the United States, the F-35 to date has orders from eleven countries, including eight international partners and three foreign military sales to Israel, Japan and South Korea.




JSF Logo. Lockheed Martin.



The JSF program was highly controversial due to the multiple setbacks it encountered during its development, long delays and huge cost overruns. Early adopters saw the unit cost increase from an initial estimate of US$50 million per aircraft to more than $150 million, causing some to cut procurement numbers or postpone their purchase, which in turn leads to more upward pressure for the unit price. It is therefore the interest of the US as well as the F-35's vendor, Lockheed Martin, to secure as many orders as possible in order to bring down the unit cost of the volume production F-35 to a targeted $85 million by 2019.

This can be achieved by enticing the early adopters to exercise their options for additional aircrafts, place follow-on orders ( like Israel ), and by convincing those potential customers who are still undecided to finally take the plunge ( like Singapore ). The best way to do it is to demonstrate that the F-35 works as or better than advertised and ironically, a drastic price cut itself!

So did Obama attempt to get Singapore to commit itself to a squadron of F-35s? I'm sure he did. I would if I were Obama. After all, the Americans really have nothing to lose by asking and a whole lot to gain if Singapore had said yes.

Listed below are some of the reasons why the time might now be mostly right for Singapore to finally own a couple of these stealth fighters.



The Only Western Stealth Fighter In Production



With the production of the F-22 Raptor permanently shutdown, the reality is that the F-35 currently is the only stealth fighter in production and available for export in the Western World. The F-22 was never cleared for export to any country, ever. So, unless you are a partner in Russia's PAK-FA stealth fighter program like India or are researching your own design like Japan and its Mitsubishi X-2 technological demonstrator, or plan to wait for China's FC-31 to be made available for export, you really have no other stealthy options apart from the A, B and C variants of the F-35. Like they say, simple as ABC.

How to tell them apart physically? The F-35A conventional take-off and landing ( CTOL ) version for the USAF has a bulge over the left upper fuselage from its internal 25mm Gatling gun and a boom receptacle for aerial refueling at its dorsal area, two unique features which the other versions lack. The F-35B short take-off and vertical landing ( STOVL ) version for the USMC meanwhile has a bulge behind the canopy to house the huge lift fan which also has distinctive panel lines. The F-35C catapult assisted take-off barrier arrested recovery ( CATOBAR ) version for the USN has a wingspan 8 feet longer than the other versions, a tailhook assembly and a double wheeled forward landing gear.


From left to right the C, B and A variants of the F-35 JSF at Edwards AFB,
California. Photo taken on 28th Feb 2014 Lockheed Martin




Security Cooperative Participant Forever? 



On 16th Mar 2004 Singapore signed a Letter of Offer and Acceptance ( LOA ) to become a Security Cooperative Participant ( SCP ) of the System Development and Demonstration Phase ( SDD ) of the JSF Program, the only Asian country to do so. It followed the signing of a Letter of Intent in Feb 2003 which laid down the broad principles for the SCP arrangement. And that seems like a looooong time ago, at least by aircraft standards. For $10 million, being a SCP allows a country to be able to have early access to proprietary information, including flight simulators. It allows early evaluation of the ability of the F-35 to meet the country's long term operational requirements for a stealth fighter. The SCP member country will have insights into the JSF’s development progress and be able to conduct studies for integration of its requirements into the JSF. It will also have the privilege of requesting for early purchase of the F-35 with deliveries from 2012 onwards. Of course those dates slipped badly and many partner countries are just beginning to receive their first F-35 this year. Now one wouldn't spend that kind of money unless seriously interested in the aircraft in question, right? The only other SCP of the JSF Program, Israel, had already put in an initial order for 33 F-35I Adir and possibly a follow-on order of another 17. If it is good enough for the Israeli Defense Force ( IDF ), it is good enough for the Singapore Armed Forces ( SAF ) ... well not exactly, but the two countries do have a long history of military cooperation and share many similar platforms and systems. That said, endorsement by the IDF does carry weight, in fact a lot of weight. The SAF had more than twelve years to do due diligence as a SCP, and SDD Phase which started in 2001 and originally projected to last for 10 years is already in its final stages and scheduled to end in 2017. Time to make a decision.



Roll out of the Israeli Air Force's first F-35I Adir ( CTOL ) at LM's
Fort Worth facilities 22nd Jun 2016. In the cockpit is Israel's
Minister for Defense Avigdor Liberman who could not stop grinning!
 Photo : Lockheed Martin



Maintaining Qualitative Lead



Singapore being a land scarce and resource poor country without any strategic depth has always looked to a doctrine of maintaining a qualitative edge against its regional peers to overcome these inherent disadvantages. Over the past few decades, the RSAF has seen its traditional lead over its rivals shrink dramatically with the introduction of Russian Su-27 / Su-30 Flanker family multirole fighters in the region. Both Indonesia and Malaysia have been operating these lethal fighters for several years. In addition, Indonesia is in advance negotiation with Russia to acquire eight Su-35 Super Flankers. Further away, both Vietnam and China have large Flanker fleets, with China already committed to buying 24 Su-35 with the first 4 deliveries expected this year. The RSAF's F-16C/D and F-15SG will find it challenging to match the superior performance of these advance Flankers. Hence, the impending introduction of the all new Su-35 as well as the continued threats from existing Flanker types might just be the catalyst to induce Singapore to finally stop mulling about the F-35 and actually buy it.




The Sukhoi Su-35S Super Flanker of the Russian Air Force.
Credit on Photo.




The Su-35 could carry a total of twelve air-to-air missiles.
The aft centerline pylon is empty in this photo. Credit on Image.



New Capability : Short Take-Off and Vertical Landing



Whoever said that the F-35 acquisition had to be a replacement for an obsolete aircraft type? Of course ageing aircrafts have to be replaced in a timely manner so as to avoid any possible capability gaps from occurring during the transition. Right now the 27 F-5S and 9 F5Ts already have their days numbered. But how about getting a squadron of the short take-off and vertical landing ( STOVL ) F-35B as a new capability for the RSAF? The F-35B is currently the only modern fighter aircraft in production that has STOVL capabilities.

The proliferation of advance long range saturation rocket artillery systems like the Avibras ASTROS II within the regional armies of Malaysia and now Indonesia meant that there could always be a threat that Singapore's airbases and runways could be targeted from outside its boundaries during outbreaks of hostilities. Having even a small number of STOVL capable fighters dispersed in various well concealed locations will ensure at least some aerial defense and retaliatory options while runway operations are temporarily disrupted.

In addition, should the Navy eventually replace its four Endurance-class Landing Platform Dock with the Joint Multi-Mission Vessel ( JMMS ) which is essentially a helicopter carrier, it would not be inconceivable to build them large enough to accommodate the F-35B, although it could be at the expense of a reduced shore projection capability. That would provide serious close air support to any amphibious landing force and top cover for the naval task force.



F-35B performing a vertical landing during Developmental Test Phase II
 onboard USS Wasp on 15th Aug 2013. Photo : Lockheed Martin

 
 
F-35B performing a short take-off during Developmental Test Phase II
 onboard USS Wasp on 15th Aug 2013. Photo : Lockheed Martin



The F-35 Program Has Matured



As a whole, the F-35 Program has made significant progress especially in the past few years. Although still far from complete, many milestones have been achieved. But the ultimate milestone would be the attainment of the Initial Operational Capability ( IOC ). The F-35B of the USMC was the first to declare operational on 31st Jul 2015. Slightly more than a week ago on 2nd Aug 2016, the USAF also declared that the F-35A is combat ready. We are now left with the Navy's F-35C which will be projected to achieve IOC sometime between Aug 2018 and Feb 2019.

Since nobody except the US intends to buy the F-35C, as far as export customers are concerned, the F-35 can be considered combat ready.

Singapore's Minister for Defense Dr Ng Eng Hen had expressed satisfaction that the JSF Program is progressing well when he visited the F-35 Academic Training Center at Luke Air Force Base and received a briefing on the F-35's capabilities from the 61st Fighter Squadron in Dec 2015. Over the years, he had witnessed the hangars at the air base gradually fill up with F-35 fighters. He could also see the F-35 chalking up on sortie numbers and flight hours. From Dec 2006 to May 2016, the F-35 fleet has a combined total of nearly 60000 flight hours. By Oct 2015, 162 F-35s had been delivered to the Department of Defense ( DOD ), inclusive of the 20 SDD test aircrafts. Lockheed Martin's Fort Worth facility is now churning out Low Rate Initial Production ( LRIP ) Lot 8 aircrafts. There will be at least another three lots of LRIP till Lot 11. The more mature a program is, the less risk it would present to the countries who are adopting it. So the JSF program has more or less matured, though eight years later than initially projected.



Four F-35B and two F-35C ( rear ) at Naval Air Station Patuxent River,
 Maryland. Photo taken on 18th Feb 2012 Lockheed Martin.



The Unit Cost Is Dropping



After years of runaway escalation, the trend had finally reversed and unit cost of all three variants of the F-35 continues to drop a little year by year as Lockheed Martin has been able to reduce the number of labour hours required to produce an F-35 from 153000 hours per aircraft in 2011 down to 50000 hours by mid-2015, all thanks to efficiency gains and process improvements ( see photo of the EMAS below ). As a result, the unit cost of the cheapest and most commonly procured F-35A variant could fall to $80 to $85 million for an F-35 ordered in 2018 and delivered in 2020. At this price, the F-35A could even be cheaper than modernized versions of some high end legacy fighters. For comparison, Lockheed Martin's own F-16 V Viper is estimated to cost $60 million per copy, while Boeing's F-15SE Silent Eagle which has some stealth features like radar absorbent coating and conformal weapon bays can cost more than $120 million. Singapore's initial tranche of 12 F-15SG, ordered in Dec 2005, was estimated to cost about $1 billion. So the unit cost could be about $83 million or more, and that was more than a decade ago. A full-rate production Eurofighter Typhoon costs $119 million, the Rafale-B $98 million, the F/A-18E Super Hornet Block II $78 million and even the SAAB JAS-39C Gripen ( no AESA radar ) cost $69 million.

For FY2016 though, the unit cost of F-35A is $109.88 million, the F-35B at $121.33 million and the F-35C at $117.83 million, already on par with the F-15SE.



The Netherland's F-35A being lifted from the automated
Electronic Mate And Assembly System or EMAS.
Photo taken 9th Apr 2015 Lockheed Martin




The RSAF's M-346 Trainers Are F-35-Proofed



The twelve Alenia Aermacchi M-346 Master lead-in to fighter trainers of the RSAF's 150 Squadron acquired in 2012 are specifically designed for helping trainee pilots transit from advance jet trainers to operational conversion with 5th generation jets like the F-35. They can simulate the flight characteristics of the F-35 and can even be used as companion trainers to reduce the need for pilots to fly the F-35 to maintain their combat readiness. They are F-35 and future-proofed. Their earlier acquisition fits into the grand scheme of possible F-35 buys down the road.



Singapore's Continued Interest In The F-35 Welcomed



In the joint statement released by the governments of the United States and Singapore after the meeting at the Oval Office between President Obama and PM Lee, it was mentioned that " President Obama welcomed Singapore’s continued interest in the F-35 aircraft. The two leaders expressed support to explore new training opportunities for the Singapore Armed Forces in Guam, with an eye toward a potential long-term training detachment for the Republic of Singapore Air Force. "

Since the late eighties, long term training detachments of the RSAF to the United States had always been associated with a Foreign Military Sale of some major platform, like the F-16 and the Peace Carvin II detachment to Luke Air Force Base ( AFB ), the F-15SG and the Peace Carvin V detachment to Mountain Home AFB, the CH-47D and the Peace Prairie detachment to Redmond Taylor Army Heliport ( AHP ), and the AH-64D and the Peace Vanguard detachment to Silverbell AHP. So is Singapore about to make another major arms acquisition?

Perhaps but it might not be what you are thinking about. There are currently three major training centers for the F-35, Eglin AFB in Florida where the Integrated Training Center trains F-35 pilots and maintainers, Luke AFB in Arizona and MCAS Beaufort in South Carolina. All foreign ( and many US ) pilots of the F-35A are currently being trained at Luke AFB where 6 squadrons ( 144 aircrafts ) of F-35As comprising a mix of USAF and pooled FMS assets will eventually be available. F-35B pilots are trained at Marine Corps Air Station ( MCAS ) Beaufort, home of Marine Fighter Attack Training Squadron 501 ( VMFAT-501 ). This is also where UK and Italian F-35B pilots would receive their training.

Depending on the variant selected, a F-35A buy would probably mean another Peace detachment to Luke AFB while a F-35B buy would necessitate a detachment to MCAS Beaufort. There ain't no F-35 simulators on Guam!

Therefore, we know for sure that the F-35 was part of the agenda of that meeting, otherwise it would not have been referred to in the joint statement. Obama must have asked Singapore to consider buying the F-35, again. Unfortunately, despite the favourable factors for the F-35, the answer was no .... for now. Hence, the statement about continued interest.

Indeed, a news report by Bloomberg two days ago said that in Dec 2014 Singapore had submitted a letter of request to the US formally seeking information on the purchase of the F-35. It then followed up in early 2015 with indications that it wanted the STOVL F-35B variant, the most complicated model. The initial acquisition was intended to be for four aircrafts by 2022 with options for another 8 more. Earlier this year, the US even gave the approval for Singapore to integrate its own radio and datalink into the aircraft should it be purchased. However, for reasons yet not known, Singapore had informed the US in June this year that the purchase was now on hold.

You can see here what IHS Jane's had to say in this video published on 8th Aug 2016 on the F-35 and Singapore. The hovering / vertical landing F-35B seen at MCAS Beaufort has a RAF roundel and belongs to the UK, a first tier partner in the JSF Program. Some nice clips of the F-15SG and F-16C are included. The narration department has much to be desired, though.






Where In The World Is Guam?






Guam is a US Territory in the Northwestern Pacific.




Guam is the biggest island and the southernmost of the Marianas which also includes
Saipan and Tinian, all famous battlegrounds in the Pacific War.
The B-29 that dropped the atomic bomb on Hiroshima launched from Tinian.




Guam is an American territory located in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. It is the largest and the southernmost of the Marianas Islands. Its strategic value lies in the fact that it is a US owned territory midway between Hawaii and Asia and therefore an important forward deployment, transit and logistic hub for the USAF and the USN, playing a key role in Obama's Rebalance to Asia. It has two major military bases - Naval Base Guam and Andersen Air Force Base, now managed together as Joint Region Marianas.



Joint Region Marianas Logo from its Twitter site.






Naval Base Guam at Apra Harbor, Santa Rita is the home of Submarine Squadron 15 made up of several Los Angeles-class nuclear attack submarines. It is also the home port of many Pacific Fleet units and US Coast Guard units.

Andersen AFB on the other hand, is one of four bomber forward operating locations of the USAF, providing support to rotating forward deployed strategic bombers like the Boeing B-52H. Proximity to the naval bombing range at Farallon de Medinilla Island 296km north of Andersen and the vastness of the surrounding air space makes Guam an ideal training place for these huge aircrafts.

Beginning 2019, Guam will be receiving some 5000 marines and 1300 of their family members relocated from Okinawa, where the Okinawans had found them burdensome. The build up will continue to 2026. Only a third will be permanently based there while the rest will train there on a rotational and staggered basis. Many will be housed around the vicinity of Andersen AFB where some of the training ranges are also located.



B-52G of the 60th Bombardment Sqn, 43rd Strategic Wing dropping 500lb Mk82
high-drag bombs at the Farallon de Medinilla Island Bombing Range during
Ex Harvest Coconut 3rd Dec 1984. Photo USAF via Wikipedia

 
 
B-2 Spirit from Whiteman AFB deploy to Andersen AFB during
Ex Polar Lightning 12th Mar 2009. USAF Photo.

 
 
 
F/A-18D takes off at Andersen AFB with B-52H in the background
during Ex Valiant Shield 14th Sep 2014. USN Photo.



Aerial view of Apra Harbor where US Naval Base Guam is located
5th Mar 2016. Several warships can be seen berthed in the foreground. USN Photo. 



So What's The Deal With Guam?



The proposed long term training detachment of the RSAF to Guam probably has nothing to do with FMS this time. Its not the F-35 for sure. Its not the P-8 as the detachment should have gone to Naval Air Station Jacksonville, Florida, otherwise. I believe the motive for the detachment to Guam is far more mundane. It is most likely a relocation of the Peace Carvin II F-16 detachment at Luke AFB to a venue closer to Singapore.




The tail flash of a RSAF F-16 of the 425th Fighter Squadron marking the
20th anniversary of the Peace Carvin II detachment to Luke AFB,
28th Oct 2013. USAF Photo.


The Peace Carvin II detachment to Luke AFB was Singapore's first permanent training detachment to the US. It started in 1993 and marked its 20th anniversary in 2013. It is also Singapore's longest running foreign military training detachment. The contract for the program had been renewed several times and unless further renewed will expire in 2018.

With the F-16 gradually becoming obsolete and Luke AFB slowly transiting to become the premier F-35A training base just like it did with the F-16 35 years ago, it might not make a lot of sen$e to extend the Peace Carvin II program further. Even if Singapore had requested for an extension, the US may not necessary grant it this time as they focus on ramping up F-35A numbers and training at Luke AFB.



The Peace Carvin II Patch : Saguaro ( AZ ) and Blackwidow ( 425th ).




Bringing home the F-16 squadron doesn't sound appealing as Singapore lacks the air space for these fast jets to train and maneuver. Relocating the squadron to a USAF base somewhere else would be a better idea, since the F-16 pilots will continue to benefit from the training and exposure, especially with regards to large scale multi-national exercises like Ex Valiant Shield.

And when you look at the map, the nearest US air base to Singapore is Andersen AFB in Guam. Basing the F-16 in Guam has advantages apart from the vastness of the airspace and the proximity of the naval bombing range. The logistics will be easier and cheaper to handle and the aircrafts could be recalled back to Singapore much faster should the need ever arise. Andersen AFB is 4717km from Paya Lebar Air Base in Singapore which is just slightly more than the maximum ferry range of a Block 50/52 F-16 with external drop tanks. This distance is still far but much less formidable compared with the distance to the US.

We often forget how BIG the Pacific Ocean is and how far it is from America to Asia. From Andersen AFB to Hickham AFB in Hawaii is 6096km. Hickham to Luke AFB is another 4663km. The great circle distance from Paya Lebar Air Base to Luke AFB is 14606km. A previous recall exercise saw the F-16s hopping from one AFB to another across the Pacific, requiring six aerial refueling and six full days to complete the journey.


Geographical location of Guam and Singapore.


The 250 RSAF personnel and their family members of the training detachment hopefully will not be too much of a burden to the increasingly congested Guam Island as the Marines move in from Okinawa. But one thing is for sure. It will be a mini boost to the local economy for years to come, just like what the SAF brought to the Australian township of Rockhampton with its training at Shoalwater Bay, Queensland. Luke's loss will be Guam's gain.



B-1, B-52 and probably KC-135 at Andersen AFB 28th Feb 2006




C-5 Galaxy, B-2 Spirit and B-1 Lancer at Andersen AFB. 7th Jun 2006




Left to right Mitsubishi F-2 ( I think ), F-15, F-16 Aggressors, F-16 and probably EA-6B
plus E-2C, C-130 ( top ) and KC-135 ( bottom ) at Andersen AFB 18th Feb 2011




Hordes of B-52H at Andersen AFB 19th Jan 2016




Sun, Sand and Surf : Andersen AFB and Yigo Town. 7th Jun 2016




Sorry No Lame Duck F-35



It has been said by Mr Lee Hsien Loong during his state dinner toast remarks that much could be achieved even by lame duck presidents during their final months in office, like Bill Clinton and the US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement, signed after a midnight round of golf with then Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong on a rainy night in Brunei during an APEC summit. For President Obama though, there will be no F-35 sale to Singapore for now to add to his legacy as the first black president of the United States. That honor will probably go to the next president, hopefully not Mr. Donald Duck who may be just lame from day one.

Indonesia and Malaysia would probably breathe sighs of relief knowing that Singapore had postponed the F-35 acquisition. But the delay will only be as long as needed. The restrain will go should more Flankers or advance air defense systems populate the region.  


 
 
POTUS Barack Obama giving a speech on 3rd Aug 2016. Photo : US Embassy 



President Obama and PM Lee on 4th Aug 2016, Obama's birthday.
Photo : US Embassy