Showing posts with label Barack Obama. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Barack Obama. Show all posts

Thursday 11 August 2016

No F-35 For Singapore ... For Now .. And What's The Deal With Guam?




F-35B of the 501st Marine Fighter Attack Training Squadron ( VMFAT-501 ),
 MCAS Beaufort, South Carolina.
Photo taken on 19th Mar 2015 Lockheed Martin  



State Dinner : What's On The Menu?



At the invitation of the President of the United States Barack Obama, Prime Minister of the Republic of Singapore Lee Hsien Loong made an official visit to the US to celebrate 50 years of diplomatic relations and to further enhance the bilateral strategic partnership that the two countries had enjoyed so far. The state visit had taken place from 31 July to 5th August 2016. The two leaders had many things to discuss, from boosting trade and commerce links to strengthening people-to-people ties through exchange scholarships and implementation of trusted traveler programs, addressing regional and global challenges including climate change, global terrorism, freedom of navigation, and last but not least, enhancing security and defense cooperation.



Singapore PM Lee Hsien Loong and President Obama at the White House
 2nd Aug 2016. Photo : US Embassy



A state dinner at the White House was also hosted in Singapore's honor on 2nd Aug 2016, the 11th so far by the Obama Administration in his eight years in office. Singapore was the fifth Asian country to receive this honor, after India, China, Japan and South Korea. During the black tie event attended by 200 prominent guests including Vice President Joe Biden, Secretary of State John Kerry and Secretary of Defense Ash Carter. PM Lee returned the honor by unveiling a Singapore cultivated orchid hybrid named after the US President and the First Lady, Dendrobium Barack and Michelle Obama, to mark the 50th anniversary of bilateral relations. It is a cross between a hybrid native to Hawaii where Mr. Obama was born, the D. Pink Lips, and a Singapore hybrid known as D. Sunplaza Park.


The Dendrobium Barack and Michelle Obama
( D. Pink Lips x D. Sun Plaza )
 is a robust and free flowering orchid hybrid named in the honor of
the POTUS and the First Lady celebrating 50 years of
bilateral relations between the US and Singapore.
Photo : MCI via Straits Times


With bilateral ties at an all time high, as they should be, and knowing that Singapore has been interested in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter for the longest time yet is always in no hurry to make the final decision, the question that many will ask is, was the F-35 on the State Dinner menu? Could a possible F-35 foreign military sale ( FMS ) to Singapore be Obama's last hurrah in his lame duck period?

As usual, some background information to provide the reader with the right perspective is always appropriate.



State Dinner Menu 2nd Aug 2016 :
Maryland Blue Crab, American Wagyu Beef, Local Tomato Salad
and Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter?!
Original Image Singapore Embassy in Washington DC





US and Singapore : 50 Years of Diplomatic Relations And More




Fifty one years ago, on 9th Aug 1965, the tiny South East Asian nation of Singapore was born in anguish, having been unceremoniously kicked out of the Federation of Malaysia like an unwanted child. Before that, it had been a British crown colony since 1819, until it achieved self-governance in 1959 and subsequently joined the Malaysian Federation in 1963.

As a small island nation without natural resources and at that time surrounded by potentially hostile neighbours, Singapore needed friends, and fast. Friends whom it could learn from, trade with, garner political support and who could lend a helping hand when it was needed. It was a matter of survival.

And among the first few countries to recognize Singapore as a sovereign country after it declared its independence from the Federation of Malaysia was the good old United States of America under the leadership of President Lyndon B. Johnson. Official recognition came on 11th Aug 1965 in a letter from Secretary of State Dean Rusk to Singaporean Foreign Minister Sinnathamby Rajaratnam, essentially the day after independence, taking into consideration that the US lies across the International Date Line on the other side of the Pacific.

The establishment of diplomatic relations and the American embassy came the following year, on 4th April 1966, with Richard H Donald as Chargé d’Affaires ad interim. The rest that followed, was half a century of ever deepening friendship and thrust, of mutual understanding, respect and admiration.


US - Singapore Diplomatic Relations 50th Anniversary. Source : US Embassy


Informal relations between the United States and Singapore had began even earlier, way back in the 19th century when US merchants engaged in the China trade began to visit the port on their way to and from China. As Singapore became one of the most important ports in the region, US-Singaporean interaction increased and the first American representative to Singapore, Joseph Balestier ( 1788 - 1858 ) was appointed on 4th July 1836 when the US established a consulate. He was a merchant and plantation owner whose wife Maria was the daughter of Paul Revere, silversmith, industrialist and Patriot in the American Revolution of the midnight ride fame. Their legacy endures in Singapore today, with an entire neighborhood, a high school and road named after Balestier. A beautiful church bell made in the foundry of her father was donated by Maria Balestier to the St Andrew's Church once signaled the evening curfew now rests in the Singapore History Gallery of the National Museum. It is the only Revere bell outside the United States.


The Revere Bell at the National Museum of Singapore.
Inscription reads : Revere, Boston 1843.
Presented to St Andrew's Church, Singapore,
by Mrs Maria Revere Balestier of Boston,
United States of America. Photo : Wikipedia

 
Today, the US is the biggest source of foreign direct investment in Singapore. Over 3700 US companies are located in Singapore and a growing number of Singapore companies are establishing themselves in the US. The US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement, the first such US agreement in Asia and now in its twelve year is a reference agreement that has shaped subsequent bilateral and multilateral FTAs in the region, including the high profile Trans-Pacific Partnership ( TPP ). Students from both countries study at each other's schools from elementary to post-graduate levels and beyond. The Singapore Armed Forces stations and trains approximately 1000 of its personnel annually in the US. Similarly, the US regularly deploys aircrafts and ships on a rotational basis to Singapore, contributing to the stability of the Asian Pacific region.  

 

The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Program



The US$379 billion F-35 Joint Strike Fighter ( JSF ) program is without doubt the world's most expensive weapons program. It aims to produce a 5th generation multirole stealth fighter in three variants to replace a whole host of legacy fighters and attack aircrafts in the United States Air Force ( USAF ), United States Navy ( USN ), the United States Marine Corps ( USMC ) and some of its closest allies. The program's international partners includes the UK, Italy, the Netherlands, Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway and Turkey. Israel and Singapore are Security Cooperative Participants.

Apart from the United States, the F-35 to date has orders from eleven countries, including eight international partners and three foreign military sales to Israel, Japan and South Korea.




JSF Logo. Lockheed Martin.



The JSF program was highly controversial due to the multiple setbacks it encountered during its development, long delays and huge cost overruns. Early adopters saw the unit cost increase from an initial estimate of US$50 million per aircraft to more than $150 million, causing some to cut procurement numbers or postpone their purchase, which in turn leads to more upward pressure for the unit price. It is therefore the interest of the US as well as the F-35's vendor, Lockheed Martin, to secure as many orders as possible in order to bring down the unit cost of the volume production F-35 to a targeted $85 million by 2019.

This can be achieved by enticing the early adopters to exercise their options for additional aircrafts, place follow-on orders ( like Israel ), and by convincing those potential customers who are still undecided to finally take the plunge ( like Singapore ). The best way to do it is to demonstrate that the F-35 works as or better than advertised and ironically, a drastic price cut itself!

So did Obama attempt to get Singapore to commit itself to a squadron of F-35s? I'm sure he did. I would if I were Obama. After all, the Americans really have nothing to lose by asking and a whole lot to gain if Singapore had said yes.

Listed below are some of the reasons why the time might now be mostly right for Singapore to finally own a couple of these stealth fighters.



The Only Western Stealth Fighter In Production



With the production of the F-22 Raptor permanently shutdown, the reality is that the F-35 currently is the only stealth fighter in production and available for export in the Western World. The F-22 was never cleared for export to any country, ever. So, unless you are a partner in Russia's PAK-FA stealth fighter program like India or are researching your own design like Japan and its Mitsubishi X-2 technological demonstrator, or plan to wait for China's FC-31 to be made available for export, you really have no other stealthy options apart from the A, B and C variants of the F-35. Like they say, simple as ABC.

How to tell them apart physically? The F-35A conventional take-off and landing ( CTOL ) version for the USAF has a bulge over the left upper fuselage from its internal 25mm Gatling gun and a boom receptacle for aerial refueling at its dorsal area, two unique features which the other versions lack. The F-35B short take-off and vertical landing ( STOVL ) version for the USMC meanwhile has a bulge behind the canopy to house the huge lift fan which also has distinctive panel lines. The F-35C catapult assisted take-off barrier arrested recovery ( CATOBAR ) version for the USN has a wingspan 8 feet longer than the other versions, a tailhook assembly and a double wheeled forward landing gear.


From left to right the C, B and A variants of the F-35 JSF at Edwards AFB,
California. Photo taken on 28th Feb 2014 Lockheed Martin




Security Cooperative Participant Forever? 



On 16th Mar 2004 Singapore signed a Letter of Offer and Acceptance ( LOA ) to become a Security Cooperative Participant ( SCP ) of the System Development and Demonstration Phase ( SDD ) of the JSF Program, the only Asian country to do so. It followed the signing of a Letter of Intent in Feb 2003 which laid down the broad principles for the SCP arrangement. And that seems like a looooong time ago, at least by aircraft standards. For $10 million, being a SCP allows a country to be able to have early access to proprietary information, including flight simulators. It allows early evaluation of the ability of the F-35 to meet the country's long term operational requirements for a stealth fighter. The SCP member country will have insights into the JSF’s development progress and be able to conduct studies for integration of its requirements into the JSF. It will also have the privilege of requesting for early purchase of the F-35 with deliveries from 2012 onwards. Of course those dates slipped badly and many partner countries are just beginning to receive their first F-35 this year. Now one wouldn't spend that kind of money unless seriously interested in the aircraft in question, right? The only other SCP of the JSF Program, Israel, had already put in an initial order for 33 F-35I Adir and possibly a follow-on order of another 17. If it is good enough for the Israeli Defense Force ( IDF ), it is good enough for the Singapore Armed Forces ( SAF ) ... well not exactly, but the two countries do have a long history of military cooperation and share many similar platforms and systems. That said, endorsement by the IDF does carry weight, in fact a lot of weight. The SAF had more than twelve years to do due diligence as a SCP, and SDD Phase which started in 2001 and originally projected to last for 10 years is already in its final stages and scheduled to end in 2017. Time to make a decision.



Roll out of the Israeli Air Force's first F-35I Adir ( CTOL ) at LM's
Fort Worth facilities 22nd Jun 2016. In the cockpit is Israel's
Minister for Defense Avigdor Liberman who could not stop grinning!
 Photo : Lockheed Martin



Maintaining Qualitative Lead



Singapore being a land scarce and resource poor country without any strategic depth has always looked to a doctrine of maintaining a qualitative edge against its regional peers to overcome these inherent disadvantages. Over the past few decades, the RSAF has seen its traditional lead over its rivals shrink dramatically with the introduction of Russian Su-27 / Su-30 Flanker family multirole fighters in the region. Both Indonesia and Malaysia have been operating these lethal fighters for several years. In addition, Indonesia is in advance negotiation with Russia to acquire eight Su-35 Super Flankers. Further away, both Vietnam and China have large Flanker fleets, with China already committed to buying 24 Su-35 with the first 4 deliveries expected this year. The RSAF's F-16C/D and F-15SG will find it challenging to match the superior performance of these advance Flankers. Hence, the impending introduction of the all new Su-35 as well as the continued threats from existing Flanker types might just be the catalyst to induce Singapore to finally stop mulling about the F-35 and actually buy it.




The Sukhoi Su-35S Super Flanker of the Russian Air Force.
Credit on Photo.




The Su-35 could carry a total of twelve air-to-air missiles.
The aft centerline pylon is empty in this photo. Credit on Image.



New Capability : Short Take-Off and Vertical Landing



Whoever said that the F-35 acquisition had to be a replacement for an obsolete aircraft type? Of course ageing aircrafts have to be replaced in a timely manner so as to avoid any possible capability gaps from occurring during the transition. Right now the 27 F-5S and 9 F5Ts already have their days numbered. But how about getting a squadron of the short take-off and vertical landing ( STOVL ) F-35B as a new capability for the RSAF? The F-35B is currently the only modern fighter aircraft in production that has STOVL capabilities.

The proliferation of advance long range saturation rocket artillery systems like the Avibras ASTROS II within the regional armies of Malaysia and now Indonesia meant that there could always be a threat that Singapore's airbases and runways could be targeted from outside its boundaries during outbreaks of hostilities. Having even a small number of STOVL capable fighters dispersed in various well concealed locations will ensure at least some aerial defense and retaliatory options while runway operations are temporarily disrupted.

In addition, should the Navy eventually replace its four Endurance-class Landing Platform Dock with the Joint Multi-Mission Vessel ( JMMS ) which is essentially a helicopter carrier, it would not be inconceivable to build them large enough to accommodate the F-35B, although it could be at the expense of a reduced shore projection capability. That would provide serious close air support to any amphibious landing force and top cover for the naval task force.



F-35B performing a vertical landing during Developmental Test Phase II
 onboard USS Wasp on 15th Aug 2013. Photo : Lockheed Martin

 
 
F-35B performing a short take-off during Developmental Test Phase II
 onboard USS Wasp on 15th Aug 2013. Photo : Lockheed Martin



The F-35 Program Has Matured



As a whole, the F-35 Program has made significant progress especially in the past few years. Although still far from complete, many milestones have been achieved. But the ultimate milestone would be the attainment of the Initial Operational Capability ( IOC ). The F-35B of the USMC was the first to declare operational on 31st Jul 2015. Slightly more than a week ago on 2nd Aug 2016, the USAF also declared that the F-35A is combat ready. We are now left with the Navy's F-35C which will be projected to achieve IOC sometime between Aug 2018 and Feb 2019.

Since nobody except the US intends to buy the F-35C, as far as export customers are concerned, the F-35 can be considered combat ready.

Singapore's Minister for Defense Dr Ng Eng Hen had expressed satisfaction that the JSF Program is progressing well when he visited the F-35 Academic Training Center at Luke Air Force Base and received a briefing on the F-35's capabilities from the 61st Fighter Squadron in Dec 2015. Over the years, he had witnessed the hangars at the air base gradually fill up with F-35 fighters. He could also see the F-35 chalking up on sortie numbers and flight hours. From Dec 2006 to May 2016, the F-35 fleet has a combined total of nearly 60000 flight hours. By Oct 2015, 162 F-35s had been delivered to the Department of Defense ( DOD ), inclusive of the 20 SDD test aircrafts. Lockheed Martin's Fort Worth facility is now churning out Low Rate Initial Production ( LRIP ) Lot 8 aircrafts. There will be at least another three lots of LRIP till Lot 11. The more mature a program is, the less risk it would present to the countries who are adopting it. So the JSF program has more or less matured, though eight years later than initially projected.



Four F-35B and two F-35C ( rear ) at Naval Air Station Patuxent River,
 Maryland. Photo taken on 18th Feb 2012 Lockheed Martin.



The Unit Cost Is Dropping



After years of runaway escalation, the trend had finally reversed and unit cost of all three variants of the F-35 continues to drop a little year by year as Lockheed Martin has been able to reduce the number of labour hours required to produce an F-35 from 153000 hours per aircraft in 2011 down to 50000 hours by mid-2015, all thanks to efficiency gains and process improvements ( see photo of the EMAS below ). As a result, the unit cost of the cheapest and most commonly procured F-35A variant could fall to $80 to $85 million for an F-35 ordered in 2018 and delivered in 2020. At this price, the F-35A could even be cheaper than modernized versions of some high end legacy fighters. For comparison, Lockheed Martin's own F-16 V Viper is estimated to cost $60 million per copy, while Boeing's F-15SE Silent Eagle which has some stealth features like radar absorbent coating and conformal weapon bays can cost more than $120 million. Singapore's initial tranche of 12 F-15SG, ordered in Dec 2005, was estimated to cost about $1 billion. So the unit cost could be about $83 million or more, and that was more than a decade ago. A full-rate production Eurofighter Typhoon costs $119 million, the Rafale-B $98 million, the F/A-18E Super Hornet Block II $78 million and even the SAAB JAS-39C Gripen ( no AESA radar ) cost $69 million.

For FY2016 though, the unit cost of F-35A is $109.88 million, the F-35B at $121.33 million and the F-35C at $117.83 million, already on par with the F-15SE.



The Netherland's F-35A being lifted from the automated
Electronic Mate And Assembly System or EMAS.
Photo taken 9th Apr 2015 Lockheed Martin




The RSAF's M-346 Trainers Are F-35-Proofed



The twelve Alenia Aermacchi M-346 Master lead-in to fighter trainers of the RSAF's 150 Squadron acquired in 2012 are specifically designed for helping trainee pilots transit from advance jet trainers to operational conversion with 5th generation jets like the F-35. They can simulate the flight characteristics of the F-35 and can even be used as companion trainers to reduce the need for pilots to fly the F-35 to maintain their combat readiness. They are F-35 and future-proofed. Their earlier acquisition fits into the grand scheme of possible F-35 buys down the road.



Singapore's Continued Interest In The F-35 Welcomed



In the joint statement released by the governments of the United States and Singapore after the meeting at the Oval Office between President Obama and PM Lee, it was mentioned that " President Obama welcomed Singapore’s continued interest in the F-35 aircraft. The two leaders expressed support to explore new training opportunities for the Singapore Armed Forces in Guam, with an eye toward a potential long-term training detachment for the Republic of Singapore Air Force. "

Since the late eighties, long term training detachments of the RSAF to the United States had always been associated with a Foreign Military Sale of some major platform, like the F-16 and the Peace Carvin II detachment to Luke Air Force Base ( AFB ), the F-15SG and the Peace Carvin V detachment to Mountain Home AFB, the CH-47D and the Peace Prairie detachment to Redmond Taylor Army Heliport ( AHP ), and the AH-64D and the Peace Vanguard detachment to Silverbell AHP. So is Singapore about to make another major arms acquisition?

Perhaps but it might not be what you are thinking about. There are currently three major training centers for the F-35, Eglin AFB in Florida where the Integrated Training Center trains F-35 pilots and maintainers, Luke AFB in Arizona and MCAS Beaufort in South Carolina. All foreign ( and many US ) pilots of the F-35A are currently being trained at Luke AFB where 6 squadrons ( 144 aircrafts ) of F-35As comprising a mix of USAF and pooled FMS assets will eventually be available. F-35B pilots are trained at Marine Corps Air Station ( MCAS ) Beaufort, home of Marine Fighter Attack Training Squadron 501 ( VMFAT-501 ). This is also where UK and Italian F-35B pilots would receive their training.

Depending on the variant selected, a F-35A buy would probably mean another Peace detachment to Luke AFB while a F-35B buy would necessitate a detachment to MCAS Beaufort. There ain't no F-35 simulators on Guam!

Therefore, we know for sure that the F-35 was part of the agenda of that meeting, otherwise it would not have been referred to in the joint statement. Obama must have asked Singapore to consider buying the F-35, again. Unfortunately, despite the favourable factors for the F-35, the answer was no .... for now. Hence, the statement about continued interest.

Indeed, a news report by Bloomberg two days ago said that in Dec 2014 Singapore had submitted a letter of request to the US formally seeking information on the purchase of the F-35. It then followed up in early 2015 with indications that it wanted the STOVL F-35B variant, the most complicated model. The initial acquisition was intended to be for four aircrafts by 2022 with options for another 8 more. Earlier this year, the US even gave the approval for Singapore to integrate its own radio and datalink into the aircraft should it be purchased. However, for reasons yet not known, Singapore had informed the US in June this year that the purchase was now on hold.

You can see here what IHS Jane's had to say in this video published on 8th Aug 2016 on the F-35 and Singapore. The hovering / vertical landing F-35B seen at MCAS Beaufort has a RAF roundel and belongs to the UK, a first tier partner in the JSF Program. Some nice clips of the F-15SG and F-16C are included. The narration department has much to be desired, though.






Where In The World Is Guam?






Guam is a US Territory in the Northwestern Pacific.




Guam is the biggest island and the southernmost of the Marianas which also includes
Saipan and Tinian, all famous battlegrounds in the Pacific War.
The B-29 that dropped the atomic bomb on Hiroshima launched from Tinian.




Guam is an American territory located in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. It is the largest and the southernmost of the Marianas Islands. Its strategic value lies in the fact that it is a US owned territory midway between Hawaii and Asia and therefore an important forward deployment, transit and logistic hub for the USAF and the USN, playing a key role in Obama's Rebalance to Asia. It has two major military bases - Naval Base Guam and Andersen Air Force Base, now managed together as Joint Region Marianas.



Joint Region Marianas Logo from its Twitter site.






Naval Base Guam at Apra Harbor, Santa Rita is the home of Submarine Squadron 15 made up of several Los Angeles-class nuclear attack submarines. It is also the home port of many Pacific Fleet units and US Coast Guard units.

Andersen AFB on the other hand, is one of four bomber forward operating locations of the USAF, providing support to rotating forward deployed strategic bombers like the Boeing B-52H. Proximity to the naval bombing range at Farallon de Medinilla Island 296km north of Andersen and the vastness of the surrounding air space makes Guam an ideal training place for these huge aircrafts.

Beginning 2019, Guam will be receiving some 5000 marines and 1300 of their family members relocated from Okinawa, where the Okinawans had found them burdensome. The build up will continue to 2026. Only a third will be permanently based there while the rest will train there on a rotational and staggered basis. Many will be housed around the vicinity of Andersen AFB where some of the training ranges are also located.



B-52G of the 60th Bombardment Sqn, 43rd Strategic Wing dropping 500lb Mk82
high-drag bombs at the Farallon de Medinilla Island Bombing Range during
Ex Harvest Coconut 3rd Dec 1984. Photo USAF via Wikipedia

 
 
B-2 Spirit from Whiteman AFB deploy to Andersen AFB during
Ex Polar Lightning 12th Mar 2009. USAF Photo.

 
 
 
F/A-18D takes off at Andersen AFB with B-52H in the background
during Ex Valiant Shield 14th Sep 2014. USN Photo.



Aerial view of Apra Harbor where US Naval Base Guam is located
5th Mar 2016. Several warships can be seen berthed in the foreground. USN Photo. 



So What's The Deal With Guam?



The proposed long term training detachment of the RSAF to Guam probably has nothing to do with FMS this time. Its not the F-35 for sure. Its not the P-8 as the detachment should have gone to Naval Air Station Jacksonville, Florida, otherwise. I believe the motive for the detachment to Guam is far more mundane. It is most likely a relocation of the Peace Carvin II F-16 detachment at Luke AFB to a venue closer to Singapore.




The tail flash of a RSAF F-16 of the 425th Fighter Squadron marking the
20th anniversary of the Peace Carvin II detachment to Luke AFB,
28th Oct 2013. USAF Photo.


The Peace Carvin II detachment to Luke AFB was Singapore's first permanent training detachment to the US. It started in 1993 and marked its 20th anniversary in 2013. It is also Singapore's longest running foreign military training detachment. The contract for the program had been renewed several times and unless further renewed will expire in 2018.

With the F-16 gradually becoming obsolete and Luke AFB slowly transiting to become the premier F-35A training base just like it did with the F-16 35 years ago, it might not make a lot of sen$e to extend the Peace Carvin II program further. Even if Singapore had requested for an extension, the US may not necessary grant it this time as they focus on ramping up F-35A numbers and training at Luke AFB.



The Peace Carvin II Patch : Saguaro ( AZ ) and Blackwidow ( 425th ).




Bringing home the F-16 squadron doesn't sound appealing as Singapore lacks the air space for these fast jets to train and maneuver. Relocating the squadron to a USAF base somewhere else would be a better idea, since the F-16 pilots will continue to benefit from the training and exposure, especially with regards to large scale multi-national exercises like Ex Valiant Shield.

And when you look at the map, the nearest US air base to Singapore is Andersen AFB in Guam. Basing the F-16 in Guam has advantages apart from the vastness of the airspace and the proximity of the naval bombing range. The logistics will be easier and cheaper to handle and the aircrafts could be recalled back to Singapore much faster should the need ever arise. Andersen AFB is 4717km from Paya Lebar Air Base in Singapore which is just slightly more than the maximum ferry range of a Block 50/52 F-16 with external drop tanks. This distance is still far but much less formidable compared with the distance to the US.

We often forget how BIG the Pacific Ocean is and how far it is from America to Asia. From Andersen AFB to Hickham AFB in Hawaii is 6096km. Hickham to Luke AFB is another 4663km. The great circle distance from Paya Lebar Air Base to Luke AFB is 14606km. A previous recall exercise saw the F-16s hopping from one AFB to another across the Pacific, requiring six aerial refueling and six full days to complete the journey.


Geographical location of Guam and Singapore.


The 250 RSAF personnel and their family members of the training detachment hopefully will not be too much of a burden to the increasingly congested Guam Island as the Marines move in from Okinawa. But one thing is for sure. It will be a mini boost to the local economy for years to come, just like what the SAF brought to the Australian township of Rockhampton with its training at Shoalwater Bay, Queensland. Luke's loss will be Guam's gain.



B-1, B-52 and probably KC-135 at Andersen AFB 28th Feb 2006




C-5 Galaxy, B-2 Spirit and B-1 Lancer at Andersen AFB. 7th Jun 2006




Left to right Mitsubishi F-2 ( I think ), F-15, F-16 Aggressors, F-16 and probably EA-6B
plus E-2C, C-130 ( top ) and KC-135 ( bottom ) at Andersen AFB 18th Feb 2011




Hordes of B-52H at Andersen AFB 19th Jan 2016




Sun, Sand and Surf : Andersen AFB and Yigo Town. 7th Jun 2016




Sorry No Lame Duck F-35



It has been said by Mr Lee Hsien Loong during his state dinner toast remarks that much could be achieved even by lame duck presidents during their final months in office, like Bill Clinton and the US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement, signed after a midnight round of golf with then Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong on a rainy night in Brunei during an APEC summit. For President Obama though, there will be no F-35 sale to Singapore for now to add to his legacy as the first black president of the United States. That honor will probably go to the next president, hopefully not Mr. Donald Duck who may be just lame from day one.

Indonesia and Malaysia would probably breathe sighs of relief knowing that Singapore had postponed the F-35 acquisition. But the delay will only be as long as needed. The restrain will go should more Flankers or advance air defense systems populate the region.  


 
 
POTUS Barack Obama giving a speech on 3rd Aug 2016. Photo : US Embassy 



President Obama and PM Lee on 4th Aug 2016, Obama's birthday.
Photo : US Embassy
































Thursday 16 June 2016

Hiroshima - 70 Years After The Atomic Bomb 広島被爆70周年


 
 
 
The Genbaku Dome ( Atomic Dome ).
Today the most iconic landmark in Hiroshima and a symbol of peace.

 

 

Everyone Should Visit Hiroshima .....




Hiroshima ( 広島 ) is a city in the Chugoku region of western Honshu, Japan. It was here, slightly more than 70 years ago during the final days of World War II, that the world's first atomic bomb was used by the United States against Japan in order to bring about an end to the conflict.

The atomic bombing completely obliterated the city and caused an estimated 140000 deaths, mostly civilians. But from the nuclear ashes, the resilient survivors had gradually rebuild their city into the modern metropolitan hub we are now familiar with. Hiroshima is today known as the City of Peace.

On 11th April 2016 John Kerry became the first US Secretary of State to visit the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum and Park as he attended the G7 Foreign Ministers Meeting in preparation for the G7 Summit the following month. At the museum, he was extremely moved by the " gut wrenching " displays that he saw and had this to say : " It tugs at all of your sensibilities as a human being. It reminds everybody of the extraordinary complexity of choices of war and what war does to people, to communities, countries, the world. ".

In addition, he said " Everyone should visit Hiroshima. And everyone means everyone. ". By that he meant everybody, including the Commander-In-Chief President Barack Obama, Nobel Peace laureate. Indeed, after a whole lot of deliberation by the White House, Obama did make a historical visit to the Peace Memorial Museum and Park during the G7 Summit, the first by a US President after the bombing. The only thing he didn't do was apologise.

With all that hype about Hiroshima, it would seem that I had heeded John Kerry's call when I visited the city on 8th Jun after participating in the Chitose JAL Marathon earlier. In actual fact, the visit was planned way before Kerry made that speech in April. I had wanted to go to Hiroshima not just for the Peace Memorial Museum and Park but also for the Yamato Museum and the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force Museum in Kure just 26km away. So here goes. All photos by the author unless indicated otherwise.



John Kerry's writing in the guestbook of the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum.
 Source @JohnKerry


Hiroshima Before The Atomic Bombing



Hiroshima is located at the mouth of the Ota River by the Seto Inland Sea ( 瀬戸内海 Seto Naikai ). It began as a feudal township hundreds of years ago with the construction of the Hiroshima Castle and gradually grew to become the leading castle town of the Chugoku and Shikoku regions during the Edo Period ( 1603 - 1867 ). Shortly after the Meiji Restoration ( 明治維新 Meiji Ishin ) of 1868, Hiroshima City was redeveloped as the capital of the newly created Hiroshima Prefecture. Strategically located with an abundance of resources from the land and the sea, it attracted schools and businesses and began developing thriving commercial districts. Unfortunately, the military was attracted to the city for the very same reasons that made Hiroshima appealing to the academia and industrialists. Starting from the early part of the 20th century, the greater Hiroshima area also become an important military district and the focus of Japan's ship building industry with many large vessels, military and civilian, being constructed at the nearby city of Kure.

During World War II, the city was a major military command centre ( HQ 2nd General Army ), logistics centre and embarkation point for troops fighting abroad with an estimated 40000 troops billeted there towards the end of the war. All these factors contributed to Hiroshima being identified as one of the designated atomic bomb targets. It was largely spared from the highly destructive incendiary bombing campaign of General Curtis Lemay in early 1945 mainly because the US wanted a more or less intact city to assess the destructive power of the atomic bomb. It had a population of 350000 in 1945.


The Atomic Bombing of Hiroshima



The United States and its allies the United Kingdom and Canada had been researching on atomic weapons in secrecy since 1939. Known as the Manhattan Project and directed by lead physicist Robert Oppenheimer, its aim was to produce the world's first atomic bomb, a super weapon that could level an entire city.

By late 1944 and early 1945, with America's island hopping strategy in the Pacific gradually pushing the Japanese forces further and further back towards their home island chains, the War was already a lost cause for Japan. However, the military high command showed no inclination to surrender and instead started mobilizing large numbers of civilians to defend the Home Isles in anticipation of an Allied Invasion sometime in late 1945 or early 1946.

At that time the results of high altitude daytime strategic bombing of Japanese cities with high explosive bombs were not encouraging due to inaccuracies induced by the jetstream. Even the subsequent incendiary bombing campaign which was highly destructive and killed 100000 people in a single night in Tokyo was not enough to persuade the Japanese generals to surrender.

On 16th July 1945, the United States successfully detonated the first atomic bomb in New Mexico. The War in Europe against Nazi Germany had already ended and the general public were getting increasingly war weary after six long years of global conflict. With the dateline for the Kyushu Invasion looming closer and faced with the prospect of a protracted war with an estimated 1 million Allied casualties, President Truman gave the green light for the use of nuclear weapons on Japan.

Months before, a special bombing group, the 509th Composite Group, had already been assembled and was training for delivering the atomic bomb to Japan. Due to the enormous size of the atomic weapon, the only suitable US aircraft that could possibly accommodate the bomb was the Boeing B-29 Superfortress  and even it had to have its bomb bays specially altered. The special bombing mission were to be launched from Tinian Island, part of the Northern Marianas Islands.

The primary and secondary targets for the atomic bombing were already pre-designated and unfortunately, for reasons already mentioned above, Hiroshima topped the list. Secondary targets were Kokura ( Kitakyushu ), Nagasaki and Niigata City.



Designated atomic bomb targets Hiroshima, Kokura, Nagasaki and Niigata.


6th August 1945


At 0145 hours, a trio of specially modified reconnaissance F-13As ( later designated RB-29A superfortress ) took off from Tinian headed for the primary and secondary targets of Hiroshima, Kokura and Nagasaki on a weather mission. That was followed one hour later by the bomb delivery B-29, the Enola Gay, piloted by the commander of the 509th Composite Group Colonel Paul W. Tibbets, and two accompanying B-29s whose purpose was for blast measurement instrumentation and strike observation and photography.

Over flying the Japanese cities in the early morning, the solitary F-13As attracted minimal attention from the Japanese air defenses. Just the night before, large groups of B-29 were picked up by Japanese early warning radars heading for various cities in southern Japan and the alert was issued in many cities including Hiroshima, with the all-clear given at 00:05 hours. Barely 7 hours later, another air raid alert went off in response to the weather reconnaissance aircraft at 7:09am but the all-clear was sounded at 7:31am. The citizens, weary from lack of sleep due to the moving in and out of air raid shelters the night before, started their daily routines. The message radioed from the weather aircraft to Tinian and Tibbets indicated that cloud over at all altitudes over Hiroshima was favourable and the advice was to bomb the primary target.

Thus, the fate of Hiroshima was sealed and the Enola Gay, visually identifying the streets of the city centre, made its bomb run at 8:09am local time, releasing the atomic bomb dubbed the " Little Boy " at 8:15am from an altitude of 31600 feet. The aiming point was the Aioi Bridge ( 相生橋 Aioibashi ) with an unmistakable T shape which was less than half a mile south-west of Hiroshima Castle.

The uranium bomb exploded at 8:16am at the pre-designated altitude of 1900 feet but missed the aiming point by 800 feet due to crosswinds. The airburst created a blast equivalent to 16 Kilotons of TNT which together with the intense heat and radiation instantly killed tens of thousands and completely destroyed everything within a one mile radius of the hypocenter ( 爆心地 bakushinchi ). Those further away were consumed by the resulting conflagration and more died.

The characteristic mushroom cloud created by the atomic blast rose to an altitude above 30000 feet, made up of smoke, soot and debris from the explosion. It could be seen even in Kure 26km away. Then came the Black Rain, another nuclear phenomenon where superheated vapour and gases cool down after rising to the upper atmosphere and then condense and fall back to earth as rain, mixed with radioactive fallout, dust and soot. In all, an estimated 4.4 sq miles or about 11 sq km of the city centre was totally destroyed by a combination of blast and fire.


The unique T-shaped Aioi Bridge ( aiming point ),
the Genbauku Dome and the Hypocenter.

 
 
Mushroom cloud over Hiroshima rising to 20000ft when this photo
was taken by the rear gunner of the Enola Gay. Photo : Wikipaedia


The Aftermath


The survivors of the initial nuclear explosion received little or no help in the initial hours and days after the bombing as most of the city's infrastructure and disaster response personnel were destroyed or killed and central authorities in Tokyo were slow to realize even the scale of the destruction. Resources were also stretched to the limit towards the last days of the war with everything in short supply from food to gasoline to medical supplies. It was not until after the second atomic bomb was dropped on Nagasaki 3 days later that the Japanese surrendered unconditionally on 15th Aug 1945.

Many of those who escaped the initial blast and fire would later succumb to their wounds and radiation sickness. More were to die in the subsequent months and years from a plethora of cancers directly related to the exposure to radiation.



Complete destruction at the city center after the atomic bomb, 1945. Photo : Wikipaedia

 
Peace Museum exhibit on plants sprouting
amidst the ruins, fall of 1945.



It was initially rumoured that the city would be barren and lifeless for 75years from the residual radiation, but a glimmer of hope came in autumn that year when the first plants began to sprout amidst the atomic ruins. Eventually, birds and other animals returned and the plants began to flourish and flower. The first plant to bloom after the bombing of Hiroshima was the Oleander ( Nerium oleander ) also known as キョウチクトウ (夾竹桃) or kyochikuto in Japanese. It brought hope and strength to the residents of Hiroshima as they struggled to rebuild their homeland. Because of that, the oleander was voted as the City Flower of Hiroshima in 1973. It blooms in the summer months, particularly around the anniversary of the atomic bombing in August, and the richly coloured blossoms always evoke deep emotions especially among the older generations and the Hibakusha (被爆者) - the survivors of the bomb.

Similarly the camphor tree ( Camphora cinnamonum ) or クスノキ( kusunoki 樟 ) was voted the City Tree of Hiroshima because many gaint ancient camphor trees used to grace the city especially around the shrines and temples. Most were destroyed by the bomb but those that managed to survive quickly recovered their vitality, symbolizing the will to live and the strength to rebuild for the survivors. Today, these evergreens are planted all over the city, bring colour to the parks and gardens throughout the four seasons, and testimony to the long and arduous path to recovery for an entire city.


The oleander was the first to bloom in Hiroshima after the atomic bombing.
It was voted the City Flower of Hiroshima in 1973. Photo : Wikipaedia


The Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park



In November 1946, it was decided that for the benefit of the citizens, an open park should be constructed in central Hiroshima out of the ruins where the busy commercial district once stood. By 1949 the concept of the park had evolved with the aim of promoting world peace and the site was to be near the hypocenter of the atomic bomb and were to include a peace boulevard as well. The designs were finalized and construction of the park began in 1951.

The Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park ( 広島平和記念公園 Hiroshima Heiwa Kinen Koen ) as it is now known opened on 1st Apr 1954. Its sprawling grounds hosts numerous memorials and monuments, museums and lecture halls, drawing more than a million visitors annually, and maybe even more after John Kerry's call for everyone to visit Hiroshima. They include the Peace Memorial Museum, the International Conference Centre, the National Peace Memorial Hall, the Peace Pond, the Memorial Cenotaph, the Peace Bells, the Peace Flame, the Children's Peace Monument, the Gates of Peace, the Atomic Bomb Memorial Mound, the Peace Clock, and many other installations.

The most notable structure within the Peace Park is of course the Hiroshima Peace Memorial, more common referred to as the Atomic Dome or the Genbaku Dome ( 原爆ドーム )  as it is known in Japanese. Gen means nuclear and Baku means explosion. It is the skeletal ruins of the former Hiroshima Prefectural Industrial Promotion Hall (広島県物産陳列館 ), designed by Czech architect Jan Letzel and completed in 1915. It is located by the banks of the Motoyasu River ( 元安川 motoyasugawa ), a branch of the Ota River as it cuts through the delta, just a stone's throw from Aioi Bridge and about 160m west of the hypocenter of the atomic bomb. It was one of the few structures that were left standing after the bombing as most other building structures constructed of wood and other less durable components were vapourised by the heat or blown to bits by the blast wave. The remnants of the building was preserved as a monument ever since and today serve as a symbol of peace, a strong reminder of the destructive nature of war and the call for global nuclear disarmament.



The Hiroshima Prefectural Industrial Promotion Hall during the Taisho Era. Wikipaedia


The Genbaku Dome as it appeared in Oct 1945.
Photo : Wikipaedia

 


How the Atomic Dome Survived the Nuclear Fires




The Genbaku Dome or A-Dome managed to escape complete destruction from the atomic explosion despite being almost directly at the hypocenter because of a few fortuitous factors.

First, European styled buildings of the colonial era ( construction commenced in1910 ) were generally solidly designed and built with masonry and durable materials like steel. Also, with earthquakes a common occurrence in Japan, these modern buildings were also generally better built to withstand such earth tremors.

The fact that it was almost directly at the hypocenter was perhaps the most important reason which prevented its complete destruction by the nuclear blast wave. Because the blast waves were coming from directly above the building, the concrete columns were able to withstand the longitudinal compressive force much better than a lateral stress.

The roof of the dome was constructed of copper plates which has a melting point lower than that of steel. Within 0.2 seconds of the detonation of the atomic bomb 600 meters above the dome, ground temperatures reached 3000°C and melted the copper plates. At 0.8 seconds after detonation, frontal shock waves reached the ground level with a supersonic speed of 440m/s and generated an enormous over-pressure of 3.5 MPa ( Megapascals ) or 35tons per meter square. The opening created by the melted roof plates allowed the blast wave to pass through the dome vertically without destroying the building completely.

Also, the many large glass windows of the building shattered immediately following the detonation and gave the blast wave an escape route without knocking all the walls down.

Therefore, although all 30 or so employees of the Department of the Interior ( Ministry of Construction ) within the building perished instantly in the ensuing fireball of the atomic blast, large portions of the building façade, though severely damaged, remained standing, much to the amazement of many.

The ruins were preserved in its original state after the bombing through the determined efforts of the people of Hiroshima. In Dec 1996, it was declared a UNESCO World Heritage Site.



Hiroshima Today



Alighting from the Shinkansen bullet train that brought me to Hiroshima, I couldn't help but noticed that this city was no different from other Japanese cities, with the usual hustle and bustle, the tall buildings, the clean and orderly streets with the occasional tram passing by and the rivers ... . All around me the city was teeming with trees and plants, and I even spotted an egret perching on a fence by the river bank as I made my way to the hotel on foot.



Egret by the Kyobashigawa River ( 京橋川 ) at the Kamiyanagi Bridge (上柳橋)
 south of Hiroshima Station.


Trams or shidens ( 市電 ) still ply the roads. This one was bound for Hiroshima Station.



If not for the prior knowledge on the history of Hiroshima, nobody would have guessed that 70 years ago, this exact city center was a nuclear wasteland. The numerous trees that lined the streets and the parks were lush and green this summer, no doubt benefitting from the incessant tsuyu ( 梅雨 ) or "plum rain", the seasonal rains of East Asia that prevailed in late spring and early summer every year. Many were mature trees with heights beyond 10 meters, even 20meters.

Walking towards the Genbaku Dome, I passed the grounds of the Art Museum, the Central Park and the rebuilt Hiroshima Castle. All were covered with greenery. Unfortunately I was in a hurry to beat the closing time of the Peace Memorial Museum and didn't have time for the castle ( or anything else ). It will have to wait for my next visit, hopefully soon if not next year.

Approaching the Atomic Dome near Ground Zero, the crowd began to get noticeably bigger. It was a strange feeling to be standing there, almost at the hypocenter, with everything intact, cars, shopping malls, restaurants, people and no radiation! Had the atomic detonation been a ground burst instead of an airburst, the story might have been very different and Hiroshima might have been uninhabitable for decades from the fallout.

At the A-Dome, people of all nationalities were represented. Some came in large groups, including school children, while many came in smaller groups. The mood was generally a little somber as the visitors read the inscriptions on the plaques and reflected on the tragic events that took place seven decades ago, and I didn't recall children screaming or running about.



View of the Genbaku Dome from the northern perimeter.


Plaque explaining about the A-Dome at the northern perimeter.




A-Dome from the western perimeter
by the banks of the Motoyasu River

 
 
Another view from the western perimeter


Description about the Dome being a UNESCO World Heritage Site
 at the southern perimeter.




After a quick tour of the Dome, I hurried to the museum before the closure at 5pm. There visitors were greeted with many photographic images, artifacts, audio-visual displays and 3D models relating to the atomic bombing of Hiroshima. Unfortunately, the East Wing of the museum was closed for renovations and the main building was really overcrowded and jam packed with visitors, many were Japanese high school students.


The Peace Flame with the Cenotaph and the Peace Memorial Museum
 in the far background.


Life-sized diorama of the severely burnt atomic survivors at the Peace Museum.


3D scale model of the city center of Hiroshima in relation to the
position of the atomic bomb ( represented by the red ball )
when it detonated on display at the Peace Museum.. 

 
Melted glassware, ceramics and metal ornaments on display at the Peace Museum.



Leaving the museum, I walked back towards my hotel but this time on the opposite bank of the Motoyasu River so that I could see the Genbaku Dome in its entirety from across the river. It was getting late in the afternoon and the tide was low, exposing the muddy bank at certain sections of the river. Somehow the winds also died down and created a calm mirror-like effect of the river surface, capturing the inverted image of the Dome in the river.



The Genbaku Dome and its reflection, view from across the Motoyasu River.



Another view of the Genbaku Dome and its reflection
in the Motoyasu River, from the Aioi Bridge.



The brief history of the Hiroshima Prefectural Industrial Promotion Hall
and an image of the building in its full glory before the bomb
was displayed on the opposite bank of the Motoyasu.
 
 
Another view of the Dome from the opposite bank.
 
 
 
Yes, drones are banned.
 
 
Approaching the Aioi Bridge, I passed a grove of a free flowering plants with beautiful pink flowers and I immediately recognized it to be oleanders, a plant which I was familiar with since childhood and which was also fairly common in the country of my residence. The combination of the forlorn Genbaku Dome in the background and a cluster of oleanders in full bloom in the foreground couldn't have created a more powerful image of both destruction and hope. Destruction on a scale that we wish no other city of the world would have to endure in the future. And hope that the world powers would one day move towards total nuclear disarmament and work towards achieving world peace.
 
 

 
The Genbaku Dome and Oleanders in full blossom, 8th Jun 2016.

 

A granite column somewhere within the Peace Park calling
for abolishment of nuclear weapons on planet Earth.
 地球上から核兵器廃絶 Chikyujo kara Kakuheiki Haizetsu

 
 
Logo from Hiroshima
City Website
 
 

As the 71st anniversary of the atomic bombing approaches, after a whirlwind stopover at Hiroshima, I must say that I completely agreed with John Kerry, that everyone should visit Hiroshima .... at least once. I know I'll be back.